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{{FrameworkIntroductionPartTemplate
{{FrameworkIntroductionPartTemplate
|PageLabel=A brief history of IMAGE
|Sequence=4
|Overview=Rotmans, 1990
|Overview=Rotmans, 1990
|Reference=Alcamo, 1994; Rotmans, 1990; Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE-team, 2001; Bouwman et al., 2006;
|Reference=Alcamo, 1994; Rotmans, 1990; Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE-team, 2001; Bouwman et al., 2006;
|Description=The IMAGE version 3.0 presented here is the most recent, operational incarnation of the model framework developed out of a suite of earlier versions, going back to the late eighties and published in a series of books.
|Description=IMAGE 3.0 is the most recent, operational model framework progressively developed since in 1980s. Over the years the model was enhanced and extended continuously through incremental changes, and more profound revisions.
 
==IMAGE 1.0==
IMAGE 1.0 ([[Rotmans, 1990]]) was developed as a single region, integrated global model to explore interactions between human activities and future climate change. As one of the first Integrated Assessment Models to address climate change, IMAGE contributed to raising awareness of the long-term consequences of human development. In the absence of regional or spatially explicit algorithms, the model operated on trends in global total and average parameters, such as world population and averaged emission factors per unit of activity.
 
==IMAGE 2.0 to 2.2==
In the 1990s, the new generation IMAGE 2, was developed with regional drivers of global change and gridded, process-oriented modelling of the terrestrial biosphere, land cover and land use ([[Alcamo, 1994]]). IMAGE 2.0 comprised three subsystems:
• 13-region Energy-Industry System (EIS);
• Terrestrial Environment System (TES) operating at 0.5x0.5 degrees grid-scale;
• Atmosphere-Ocean System (AOS) to compute the resulting changes in the composition of the atmosphere leading to climate change.
 
Further refinements and extensions were implemented in IMAGE 2.1 ([[Alcamo et al., 1998]]) to enhance model performance and broaden its applicability to issues other than climate change.
 
The enhanced capabilities of IMAGE 2.2 were demonstrated in the contribution to the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ([[IMAGE-team, 2001]]). The earlier zonal-mean climate-ocean model was replaced by a combination of the [[MAGICC  model|MAGICC]] climate model and the Bern ocean model. The resulting global average temperature and precipitation changes were scaled using temperature and precipitation patterns generated by complex Global Circulation Models ({{abbrTemlate|GCM}}s) to provide spatially explicit climate impacts and feedback. For economy and energy, the EIS of version 2.0 was replaced with the TIMER energy model, which also improved linkage with the macroeconomic model Worldscan.
 
==IMAGE 2.4==
A range of developments were implemented stepwise in intermediate versions, leading to the release of IMAGE 2.4 ([[MNP, 2006]]). In close cooperation with the agro-economic research institute [[LEI]], links were established with agro-economic modelling in IMAGE 2.4. This ensured the inclusion of biophysical conditions in modelling future agricultural production based on intensification of production and expansion of agricultural area.
 
Furthermore, to align closer with policy discussions, the number of regions was increased to 24 to reveal the position of major global players. Other extensions include a link with the global biodiversity model GLOBIO to study impacts of global change drivers on natural and cultivated land.
 
Many of the modules were enhanced, including the energy model TIMER, emission modelling and the carbon cycle. Experimental links with an intermediate complexity climate model were discontinued and the simple climate model [[MAGICC model|MAGICC]] with a strong feature to represent uncertainties in the climate system was adopted as the default. IMAGE 2.4 has played a key role in supporting various international environmental assessment studies.


===What is new in IMAGE 3.0:  ===
==Towards IMAGE 3.0==
* Detailed energy demand modules, including household energy demand levels and energy carrier preferences distinguished between urban and rural populations and by income level in developing and emerging economies. And also in selected energy-intensive industries, using technological production alternatives with their costs and efficiencies in delivering energy services.
After publication of the IMAGE 2.4 book and a subsequent progress review by the IMAGE Advisory Board, the framework has been further developed. These developments were published in journal articles and conference papers, but no new versions were officially released. For example, representation of energy demand was improved by more bottom-up modelling of household energy systems in TIMER for rural and urban population by income level. Selected industries were better represented in more technical detail to underpin energy demands and emissions. The forestry sector included forestry management options in addition to clear-cutting.
* Forestry management. The demand for roundwood, pulp and paper, and for traditional bio-energy use (fuelwood and charcoal) is met by supply from different production systems, per region balanced with trade. Management systems include clear-cutting, selective cutting (conventional or “reduced impact logging”) and dedicated wood plantations. In addition, wood products are retrieved from areas deforested for agriculture and other non-forestry purposes.
* A new and updated crop and carbon model, [[LPJmL model|LPJmL]], simulates plant growth as a function of soil properties, water availability, climatic conditions and crop growth parameters. Carbon stocks and fluxes, biomass yields and water surplus are thereby integrated and internally consistent.
* Global hydrological modelling, coupled with natural vegetation and crop growth modelling. The balance of precipitation and evapotranspiration in each grid-cell feeds a routing network of rivers and natural lakes. Man-made reservoirs for hydropower production, irrigation or mixed use built to date are included and alter river flows.
* Nutrient (N, P) soil budgets for natural and anthropogenic land use, to assess nutrient cycles in agricultural and natural ecosystems, and fertilizer use, its efficiency and integration of manure in crop production systems Besides these non-point sources, point-sources of urban wastewater with nutrients are modelled. The fate of the nutrients in the river systems finally determines the loading into coastal waters at the river mouth, creating risks of hypoxia and algal blooms.
* Landscape composition on a 5x5 minutes resolution, from the 0.5x0.5 degrees grid used in all IMAGE 2.x versions. Depending on the modules, the 5 minute information is processed directly, or translated into fractional land-use at the 0.5 degree scale.
* The climate model with associated data is updated to Magicc 6.0, a simple climate model that estimates global average temperatures as the result of net [[GHG]] emissions, carbon uptake, and atmospheric concentrations of climate forcing agents. The global average temperature is used to scale grid-based climate indicators emerging from complex climate model studies.
* Additional impact modules provide information on flood risks;; aquatic biodiversity; ecosystem goods and services and human health.
* Optimal GHG emission reduction pathways under overall


==IMAGE framework introduction/A brief history of IMAGE==
In cooperation with Wageningen University ([[WUR]]) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ([[PIK]], Germany), the IMAGE natural vegetation and crop modules were replaced with the [[LPJmL model|LPJmL]]LPJmL Global Dynamic Vegetation Model. This enabled modelling of linked carbon and water cycles, and adding a global hydrology module to IMAGE, which was not available in previous versions. Modelling biodiversity impacts was extended to cover freshwater systems as well as terrestrial biomes.


===IMAGE 1===
==IMAGE 3.0==
The IMAGE model version 1.0 ([[Rotmans, 1990]]) was developed as a single region, integrated global model to explore the interactions between human activities and future climate change. At the time, IMAGE 1.0 was among the pioneering examples of Integrated Assessment Models addressing climate change. As such, it played an important role in raising awareness of consequences of long-term human development. In the absence of regional or spatially explicit algorithms, the model operated on trends in global total or average parameters, e.g. world population and averaged emission factors per unit of activity.
The following new developments have been incorporated in IMAGE 3.0:


===IMAGE 2===
* Energy demand modules to address household energy demand and energy carrier preferences for urban and rural populations, and per income level in developing and emerging economies. Energy demand also includes selected energy-intensive industries using technological production alternatives with their costs and efficiencies in delivering energy services.
As a result of a major development investment in the nineties, a quite different generation of IMAGE came into operation, jointly referred to as IMAGE 2. The first version, IMAGE 2.0, presented several key aspects retained to date: regional drivers of global change and gridded, process-oriented modeling of the terrestrial biosphere, land-cover and land-use ([[Alcamo, 1994]]). IMAGE 2.0 consisted of three main subsystems: the 13-region Energy-Industry System ([[HasAcronym::EIS]]), the Terrestrial Environment System ([[HasAcronym::TES]]) operating at 0.5x0.5 degrees grid-scale and the Atmosphere-Ocean System ([[HasAcronym::AOS]]) to compute the resulting changes in the composition of the atmosphere leading to climate change. Further refinements and extensions were implemented in IMAGE 2.1 ([[Alcamo et al., 1998]]) with the primary aim to enhance the model’s performance and broaden its applicability . The latter was demonstrated convincingly with IMAGE 2.2  contributing  to the development and publication of the [[IPCC]] Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ([[IMAGE-team, 2001]]). Among others, in IMAGE 2.2 the earlier zonal-mean climate-ocean model was replaced by a combination of the MAGICC climate model and the Bern ocean model. In the new approach, the resulting global average temperature and precipitation changes were scaled using temperature and precipitation patterns generated by complex coupled Global Circulation Models ([[HasAcronym::GCM|GCMs]]) to provide spatially explicit climate impacts and feedback. On the economy–energy side, the TIMER energy model  replaced the earlier EIS, also improving the linkage with the  macro-economic model Worldscan .


===IMAGE 2.4===
* Forestry management module covering different production systems per region. Management systems include clear-cutting, selective cutting (conventional and reduced impact logging) and dedicated forest plantations. Wood products are also retrieved from areas deforested for agriculture and other purposes.
After the release of IMAGE 2.2 at the time of publication of the IPCC-[[SRES]] report,  it was decided  to invest in further development of IMAGE, aiming at a next generation, IMAGE 3, and to pursue that with a network strategy, in partnerships with national and international institutes and universities, rather than primarily in-house. IMAGE 2.4 ([[Bouwman et al., 2006]]) marked several major steps towards achieving the ambitions of IMAGE 3. Important changes include the close coupling with agro-economic modelling through co-operation with LEI, ensuring that biophysical conditions are taken on board in modelling future agricultural production distinguished by intensification of production and expansion of agricultural area. Furthermore, to align better with ongoing policy discussions, from the number of regions was extended from 17 to 24 to highlight the position of major players on the global field. Other extensions include a coupling with the global biodiversity model [[GLOBIO model|GLOBIO]] to study impacts of global change drivers on the state of natural and cultivated land. Enhancements were made in many modules, including the energy model [[TIMER model|TIMER]], emission modelling and the carbon cycle. On the other hand it was decided to round off the experimental coupling with an intermediate complexity climate model, as being too complex for the purpose, and rather to focus on the simple climate model [[MAGICC model|Magicc]] with its strong feature to represent uncertainties in the climate system.


===Towards IMAGE 3===
* Plant growth and carbon modelling by [[LPJmL model|LPJmL]], coupled to IMAGE. LPJmL simulates plant growth as a function of soil properties, water availability, climatic conditions and plant and crop growth parameters. Carbon stocks and fluxes, biomass yields and water surplus are integrated and internally consistent.
After publication of the IMAGE 2.4 book and a subsequent review of progress by the IMAGE  Advisory Board, further development of the framework had has been undertaken, , published in a range of journal articles and conference papers. New features include more bottom-up modeling of household energy systems in TIMER, distinguishing rural and urban population demands by income level. Selected industries were represented in more technical detail to underpin energy demands and emissions better. The forestry sector was revisited and now includes forestry management options besides clear-cutting. Biodiversity impacts modeling was extended to cover freshwater systems besides terrestrial biomes. In cooperation with WUR and PIK (Potsdam, Germany), the natural vegetation and crop modules of IMAGE were replaced by the [[LPJ model|LPJ]] Global Dynamic Vegetation Model , allowing for  modeling of coupled carbon and water cycles, and bringing a global hydrological model to IMAGE, which was not available in earlier versions. hydrological modelling. These and other developments were implemented stepwise on top of IMAGE 2.4, in intermediate versions. All these changes together  are now incorporated in IMAGE 3.0. These new developments, see below, delineate clearly the new generation IMAGE 3 from the earlier sequence of IMAGE 2 versions.  


Climate policy goals are explored under varying assumptions for participation timing, rules and emission targets under global strategies. A simple cost-benefit analysis tool is added to test the net economic outcome of mitigation efforts, adaptation costs and residual climate change impacts at different levels of forcing, subject to varying cost and damage assumptions found in the literature.
* Global hydrological modelling, linked with natural vegetation and crop growth in LPJmL. The balance of precipitation and evapotranspiration in each grid cell feeds a routing network of rivers and natural lakes. Man-made reservoirs for hydropower production, irrigation, and mixed use are included and alter river flows.
 
* Nutrient (N, P) soil budgets for natural and anthropogenic land use to assess nutrient cycles in agricultural and natural ecosystems, fertiliser use, and efficiency and integration of manure in crop production systems. In addition to these non-point sources of nutrients, point sources of urban wastewater are modelled. The fate of the nutrients in the river systems determines the load in coastal waters at a river mouth, creating risks of hypoxia and algal blooms.
 
* Landscape composition on a 5x5 minutes resolution, instead of the 0.5x0.5 degrees grid used in all IMAGE 2.x versions. Depending on the modules, 5 minute information is processed either directly or translated into fractional land use at the 0.5 degree scale.
 
* [[MAGICC model|MAGICC 6.0]], which updates the climate model and associated data, is a simple climate model that estimates global average temperatures as the result of net greenhouse gas emissions, carbon uptake, and atmospheric concentrations of climate forcing agents. The global average temperature is used to scale grid-based climate indicators emerging from complex climate model studies.
 
* Additional impact modules, providing information on aquatic biodiversity, flood risks, soil degradation, ecosystem services, and human health.
 
* Optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways for overall climate policy goals are explored under assumptions for participation timing, rules and emission targets under global strategies. A cost-benefit analysis tool has been added to test the net economic outcome of mitigation efforts, adaptation costs and residual climate change impacts at different levels of forcing, subject to cost and damage assumptions found in the literature.
 
|PageLabel=A brief history of IMAGE
|Sequence=4
}}
}}

Revision as of 10:20, 13 May 2014

Parts of IMAGE framework

  1. Setting the stage
  2. IMAGE 3.0 in a nutshell
  3. Recent model developments
  4. A brief history of IMAGE
  5. Organisational set-up and scientific quality
  6. Uncertainties
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Relevant overviews
References


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