Energy demand/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions
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The model on energy demand have been calibrated for the 1971–2007 period in order to reproduce the historical trends in fuel and electricity use as much as possible (see papers on individual model components, such as ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2010a]]). Using the historical input data on population and value added and the calculated energy prices as given, other drivers and model parameters were varied systematically within the range of values derived from the literature, in order to improve the fit ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2010a]]; [[Van Ruijven et al., 2010b]]). The primary source for data on energy use was the international energy agency (IEA). Their data were complemented by data from other sources, such as those on steel and cement demand and production, and transport data as described in the references of the different model components. The residential model uses data from many different national statistical agencies and household surveys ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2010a]]). | The model on energy demand have been calibrated for the 1971–2007 period in order to reproduce the historical trends in fuel and electricity use as much as possible (see papers on individual model components, such as ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2010a]]). Using the historical input data on population and value added and the calculated energy prices as given, other drivers and model parameters were varied systematically within the range of values derived from the literature, in order to improve the fit ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2010a]]; [[Van Ruijven et al., 2010b]]). The primary source for data on energy use was the international energy agency (IEA). Their data were complemented by data from other sources, such as those on steel and cement demand and production, and transport data as described in the references of the different model components. The residential model uses data from many different national statistical agencies and household surveys ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2010a]]). | ||
==Limitations== | ==Limitations== | ||
Some of the main limitations of the energy demand model (TIMER) are listed in the general introduction of the model. | Some of the main limitations of the energy demand model ([[TIMER]]) are listed in the general introduction of the model. | ||
A critical factor in modelling energy demand is the level of detail, given the large number of relevant technologies. The TIMER model uses an intermediate approach, in which some key technologies are modelled explicitly, while others are included implicitly. For more detailed estimates of the potential of energy efficiency, therefore, it would be more appropriate to use a different model. | A critical factor in modelling energy demand is the level of detail, given the large number of relevant technologies. The TIMER model uses an intermediate approach, in which some key technologies are modelled explicitly, while others are included implicitly. For more detailed estimates of the potential of energy efficiency, therefore, it would be more appropriate to use a different model. | ||
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Revision as of 15:41, 10 December 2013
Parts of Energy demand/Data uncertainties limitations
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