Energy supply

Component is implemented in:

TIMER model (version TIMER 3.2) Aggregated component: Energy supply and demand Components: Emissions Energy conversion Energy demand Energy supply

Related IMAGE components

Atmospheric composition and climate Climate policy Crops and grass Drivers Land cover and land use

Projects/Applications

ADVANCE project Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project

Key publications

De Vries et al., 2007 Van Vuuren et al., 2008 Van Vuuren et al., 2009

Flowchart Energy supply. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

Key policy issues

• How can energy resources be exploited to meet future primary energy demand?
• How can energy supply and demand be balanced between world regions, and how will this effect security of supply?
• How rapidly can the transition to more sustainable energy supply be made?

Introduction

The energy supply model simulates long-term trends in energy supply. This model describes the investments in, and the use of, different types of energy carriers by technology development and resource depletion. Technological development is implemented in form of learning curves for most fuels and renewable energy options. Costs decrease endogenously as a function of the cumulative energy capacity. On the other hand, resource costs increase as they get depleted which is based on cost-supply curves.

Energy supply is assumed to always meet energy demand. In order to do so, not only domestic resources can be used, but energy carriers, such as coal, oil and gas, can also be traded. The impact of depletion and technology development lead to changes in primary fuel prices, which influence investment decisions in the end-use and energy-conversion modules. Linkages to other parts of IMAGE framework include available land for bio-energy production and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants.

Input/Output Table

Input Energy supply component

IMAGE model drivers and variables	Description	Source
Learning rate	Determines the rate of technology development in learning equations.	Drivers
Energy resources	Volume of energy resource per carrier, region and supply cost class (determines depletion dynamics).	Drivers
Trade restriction	Trade tariffs and barriers limiting trade in energy carriers (in energy submodel).	Drivers
Technology development of energy supply	Learning curves and exogenous learning that determine technology development.	Drivers
Land supply for bioenergy - grid	Land available for sustainable bioenergy production (abandoned agricultural land and non-forested land).	Land cover and land use
Demand for primary energy	Total demand for energy production. Sum of final energy demand and energy inputs into energy conversion processes.	Energy conversion
Potential bioenergy yield - grid	Potential yields of bioenergy crops.	Crops and grass

External datasets	Description	Source
Initial production costs	The costs of energy conversion technologies at the start of the simulation.	Various sources

Output Energy supply component

IMAGE model variables	Description	Use
Marginal abatement cost	Cost of an additional unit of pollution abated (CO2eq). A marginal abatement cost curve (MAC curve) is a set of options available to an economy to reduce pollution, ranked from the lowest to highest additional costs.	Climate policy
Bioenergy production	Total bioenergy production.	Land-use allocation
Energy and industry activity level	Activity levels in the energy and industrial sector, per process and energy carrier, for example, the combustion of petrol for transport or the production of crude oil.	Emissions
Primary energy price	The price of primary energy carriers based on production costs.	Energy conversion Energy demand
Carbon storage price	The costs of capturing and storing CO2, affecting the use of CCS technology.	Energy conversion
Total primary energy supply	Total primary energy supply.	Final output
Energy security indicators	Indicators on the status of energy security, such as energy self-sufficiency.	Final output