IMAGE framework/A brief history of IMAGE: Difference between revisions
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{{FrameworkIntroductionTemplate | {{FrameworkIntroductionTemplate | ||
|Overview=Rotmans, 1990 | |Overview=Rotmans, 1990 | ||
|Reference=Alcamo, 1994; Rotmans, 1990; Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE-team, 2001; Bouwman et al., 2006; | |Reference=Alcamo, 1994; Rotmans, 1990; Alcamo et al., 1998; IMAGE-team, 2001; Bouwman et al., 2006; | ||
|Description=The IMAGE version 3.0 presented here is the most recent, operational incarnation of the model framework developed out of a suite of earlier versions, going back to the late eighties and published in a series of books. | |Description=The IMAGE version 3.0 presented here is the most recent, operational incarnation of the model framework developed out of a suite of earlier versions, going back to the late eighties and published in a series of books. | ||
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===IMAGE 2=== | ===IMAGE 2=== | ||
As a result of a major development investment in the nineties, a quite different generation of IMAGE came into operation, jointly referred to as IMAGE 2. The first version, IMAGE 2.0, presented several key aspects retained to date: regional drivers of global change and gridded, process-oriented modeling of the terrestrial biosphere, land-cover and land-use ([[Alcamo, 1994]]). IMAGE 2.0 consisted of three main subsystems: the 13-region Energy-Industry System ([[EIS]]), the Terrestrial Environment System (TES) operating at 0.5x0.5 degrees grid-scale and the Atmosphere-Ocean System ([[AOS]]) to compute the resulting changes in the composition of the atmosphere leading to climate change. Further refinements and extensions were implemented in IMAGE 2.1 ([[Alcamo et al., 1998]]) with the primary aim to enhance the model’s performance and broaden its applicability . The latter was demonstrated convincingly with IMAGE 2.2 contributing to the development and publication of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ([[IMAGE-team, 2001]]). Among others, in IMAGE 2.2 the earlier zonal-mean climate-ocean model was replaced by a combination of the MAGICC climate model and the Bern ocean model. In the new approach, the resulting global average temperature and precipitation changes were scaled using temperature and precipitation patterns generated by complex coupled Global Circulation Models ([[GCM|GCMs]]) to provide spatially explicit climate impacts and feedback. On the economy–energy side, the TIMER energy model replaced the earlier EIS, also improving the linkage with the macro-economic model Worldscan . | As a result of a major development investment in the nineties, a quite different generation of IMAGE came into operation, jointly referred to as IMAGE 2. The first version, IMAGE 2.0, presented several key aspects retained to date: regional drivers of global change and gridded, process-oriented modeling of the terrestrial biosphere, land-cover and land-use ([[Alcamo, 1994]]). IMAGE 2.0 consisted of three main subsystems: the 13-region Energy-Industry System ([[EIS]]), the Terrestrial Environment System (TES) operating at 0.5x0.5 degrees grid-scale and the Atmosphere-Ocean System ([[AOS]]) to compute the resulting changes in the composition of the atmosphere leading to climate change. Further refinements and extensions were implemented in IMAGE 2.1 ([[Alcamo et al., 1998]]) with the primary aim to enhance the model’s performance and broaden its applicability . The latter was demonstrated convincingly with IMAGE 2.2 contributing to the development and publication of the [[IPCC]] Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ([[IMAGE-team, 2001]]). Among others, in IMAGE 2.2 the earlier zonal-mean climate-ocean model was replaced by a combination of the MAGICC climate model and the Bern ocean model. In the new approach, the resulting global average temperature and precipitation changes were scaled using temperature and precipitation patterns generated by complex coupled Global Circulation Models ([[HasAcronym::GCM|GCMs]]) to provide spatially explicit climate impacts and feedback. On the economy–energy side, the TIMER energy model replaced the earlier EIS, also improving the linkage with the macro-economic model Worldscan . | ||
===IMAGE 2.4=== | ===IMAGE 2.4=== | ||
After the release of IMAGE 2.2 at the time of publication of the | After the release of IMAGE 2.2 at the time of publication of the IPCC-[[SRES]] report, it was decided to invest in further development of IMAGE, aiming at a next generation, IMAGE 3, and to pursue that with a network strategy, in partnerships with national and international institutes and universities, rather than primarily in-house. IMAGE 2.4 ([[Bouwman et al., 2006]]) marked several major steps towards achieving the ambitions of IMAGE 3. Important changes include the close coupling with agro-economic modelling through co-operation with LEI, ensuring that biophysical conditions are taken on board in modelling future agricultural production distinguished by intensification of production and expansion of agricultural area. Furthermore, to align better with ongoing policy discussions, from the number of regions was extended from 17 to 24 to highlight the position of major players on the global field. Other extensions include a coupling with the global biodiversity model [[GLOBIO model|GLOBIO]] to study impacts of global change drivers on the state of natural and cultivated land. Enhancements were made in many modules, including the energy model [[TIMER model|TIMER]], emission modelling and the carbon cycle. On the other hand it was decided to round off the experimental coupling with an intermediate complexity climate model, as being too complex for the purpose, and rather to focus on the simple climate model [[MAGICC model|Magicc]] with its strong feature to represent uncertainties in the climate system. | ||
===Towards IMAGE 3=== | ===Towards IMAGE 3=== | ||
After publication of the IMAGE 2.4 book and a subsequent review of progress by the IMAGE Advisory Board, further development of the framework had has been undertaken, , published in a range of journal articles and conference papers. New features include more bottom-up modeling of household energy systems in TIMER, distinguishing rural and urban population demands by income level. Selected industries were represented in more technical detail to underpin energy demands and emissions better. The forestry sector was revisited and now includes forestry management options besides clear-cutting. Biodiversity impacts modeling was extended to cover freshwater systems besides terrestrial biomes. In cooperation with WUR and PIK (Potsdam, Germany), the natural vegetation and crop modules of IMAGE were replaced by the LPJ Global Dynamic Vegetation Model , allowing for modeling of coupled carbon and water cycles, and bringing a global hydrological model to IMAGE, which was not available in earlier versions. hydrological modelling. These and other developments were implemented stepwise on top of IMAGE 2.4, in intermediate versions. All these changes together are now incorporated in IMAGE 3.0. These new developments, see below, delineate clearly the new generation IMAGE 3 from the earlier sequence of IMAGE 2 versions . | After publication of the IMAGE 2.4 book and a subsequent review of progress by the IMAGE Advisory Board, further development of the framework had has been undertaken, , published in a range of journal articles and conference papers. New features include more bottom-up modeling of household energy systems in TIMER, distinguishing rural and urban population demands by income level. Selected industries were represented in more technical detail to underpin energy demands and emissions better. The forestry sector was revisited and now includes forestry management options besides clear-cutting. Biodiversity impacts modeling was extended to cover freshwater systems besides terrestrial biomes. In cooperation with WUR and PIK (Potsdam, Germany), the natural vegetation and crop modules of IMAGE were replaced by the [[LPJ model|LPJ]] Global Dynamic Vegetation Model , allowing for modeling of coupled carbon and water cycles, and bringing a global hydrological model to IMAGE, which was not available in earlier versions. hydrological modelling. These and other developments were implemented stepwise on top of IMAGE 2.4, in intermediate versions. All these changes together are now incorporated in IMAGE 3.0. These new developments, see below, delineate clearly the new generation IMAGE 3 from the earlier sequence of IMAGE 2 versions . | ||
===What is new in IMAGE 3.0: === | ===What is new in IMAGE 3.0: === | ||
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* Additional impact modules provide information on flood risks;; aquatic biodiversity; ecosystem goods and services and human health. | * Additional impact modules provide information on flood risks;; aquatic biodiversity; ecosystem goods and services and human health. | ||
* Optimal GHG emission reduction pathways under overall climate policy goals are explored under varying assumptions for participation timing, rules and emission targets under global strategies. A simple cost-benefit analysis tool is added to test the net economic outcome of mitigation efforts, adaptation costs and residual climate change impacts at different levels of forcing, subject to varying cost and damage assumptions found in the literature. | * Optimal GHG emission reduction pathways under overall climate policy goals are explored under varying assumptions for participation timing, rules and emission targets under global strategies. A simple cost-benefit analysis tool is added to test the net economic outcome of mitigation efforts, adaptation costs and residual climate change impacts at different levels of forcing, subject to varying cost and damage assumptions found in the literature. | ||
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Revision as of 11:26, 12 December 2013
Parts of IMAGE framework/A brief history of IMAGE
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