Air pollution and energy policies/Policy issues: Difference between revisions
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{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate | {{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate | ||
|Reference=Kruyt et al. 2009 | |Reference=Kruyt et al., 2009; PBL, 2012; Van Ruijven, 2008; | ||
|Description=A description of the energy system is provided in the components belonging to [[Energy demand and supply]]. Moreover, a detailed description on emissions can be found in [[Emissions]]. As indicated in Figure 8.1.1, the various parts of the energy system are closely connected. This implies that achieving a particular goal also has important consequences for other goals. For instance, climate policies can lead to less fossil-fuel use and therefore also may reduce air pollution. A brief description on how the various goals are included in IMAGE is provided below. | |Description=A description of the energy system is provided in the components belonging to [[Energy demand and supply]]. Moreover, a detailed description on emissions can be found in [[Emissions]]. As indicated in Figure 8.1.1, the various parts of the energy system are closely connected. This implies that achieving a particular goal also has important consequences for other goals. For instance, climate policies can lead to less fossil-fuel use and therefore also may reduce air pollution. A brief description on how the various goals are included in IMAGE is provided below. | ||
===Energy security=== | ===Energy security=== | ||
===Baseline developments=== | ===Baseline developments=== | ||
The concept of energy security is widely used, yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation. Some deal with one aspect of energy security, such as resource estimates, reserve-to-production ratios, diversity indices and, import dependence, whereas others attempt to capture several relevant elements in a single aggregated index. On the basis of IMAGE results, it is possible to calculate a wide set of indicators, allowing a broad assessment of relevant changes ([[Kruyt et al. 2009]]). Typically, the IMAGE results show that in baseline scenarios without additional policy, depletion of currently known fossil resources accelerates due to increasing global demand. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of producing countries, over the 2010–2030 period. After 2030/2050 however, production of unconventional sources from other regions will diversify the market. For natural gas and certainly for coal, depletion dynamics are less noticeable in the results. | The concept of energy security is widely used, yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation. Some deal with one aspect of energy security, such as resource estimates, reserve-to-production ratios, diversity indices and, import dependence, whereas others attempt to capture several relevant elements in a single aggregated index. On the basis of IMAGE results, it is possible to calculate a wide set of indicators, allowing a broad assessment of relevant changes ([[Kruyt et al., 2009]]). Typically, the IMAGE results show that in baseline scenarios without additional policy, depletion of currently known fossil resources accelerates due to increasing global demand. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of producing countries, over the 2010–2030 period. After 2030/2050 however, production of unconventional sources from other regions will diversify the market. For natural gas and certainly for coal, depletion dynamics are less noticeable in the results. | ||
Some specific policies can be explored in IMAGE to improve energy security, in particular, import restrictions, preferences for particular fuels and import taxes. More typically, the model can be used to project energy security consequences of the climate policy. Interestingly, IMAGE scenarios also show that climate policy has clear co-benefits for improving energy security. Possible benefits include reduced international trade, increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources ([[PBL, 2012]]). Analysis also shows that import restrictions mostly have a temporarily impact on energy security; as such restrictions typically lead to a faster depletion of domestic resources, they actually worsen long-term energy security ([[Kruyt et al., 2009]]). | |||
===Energy access=== | |||
===Baseline developments=== | |||
The IMAGE model can also be used to look into energy access issues. The baseline scenario of the Rio+20 report shows that, without additional policy by 2030, 2.6 billion people will continue to depend on solid fuels for cooking and heating and 1 billion people will have no access to electricity [[PBL, 2012]]). Low access has been reported to lead not only to development problems, but also to environmental problems. | |||
===Policy interventions=== | |||
The model defines access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating either by the use of modern fuels or improved biomass stoves. The measures included in the IMAGE analysis include increased investments in the power grid (for access to electricity), fuel subsidies and grants, or micro-lending facilities to make access to credit easier and lower the costs of borrowing money for households ([[Van Ruijven, 2008]]) (to make the transition away from solid fuels for cooking and heating). Furthermore, for households for which a shift away from biomass may still be out of reach under the induced financial policies, improved biomass stoves are distributed, being a cost-effective interim solution. The Roads from Rio+20 report ([[PBL, 2012]]), for instance, explores different measures (subsidies, grid extension) to achieve a 95 % grid connectivity and use of modern fuels for cooking and heating in 2030. | |||
===Air pollution=== | |||
===Baseline developments=== | |||
Both indoor and outdoor air pollution are important issues for energy policies. Air pollution can have negative impacts on health and air pollution. IMAGE can be used to explore air pollution policies, particularly, in relation to climate policy. In the baseline scenario of the [[Rio+20]] project, for instance, emissions of air pollutants stay globally at high levels ([[PBL 2012]]). Black carbon emissions are projected to decrease towards 2050, while SO2 emissions stay constant and NOx emissions increase. Another key factor is the ageing of the population, since the impacts of air pollution will especially be felt among the elderly. | |||
===Policy intervention=== | |||
The emission of air pollutants may be reduced by either a change in energy use or by implementation of end-of-pipe abatement measures. In IMAGE, the first policy category can be explicitly modelled; for instance, as a result of climate policy. It should be noted that many of the technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also lead to fewer air pollutant emissions. End-of-pipe policies can only be implemented by changing the emission factors (in a rather aggregated way). However, by relating the improvement rates to those of more explicit models, it is still possible to perform policy relevant experiments. | |||
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Revision as of 18:10, 10 January 2014
Parts of Air pollution and energy policies/Policy issues
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