Air pollution and energy policies/Policy issues: Difference between revisions

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|Sequence=2
|Sequence=2
|Reference=PBL, 2012; Van Ruijven, 2008;
|Reference=PBL, 2012; Van Ruijven, 2008;
|Description=A description of the energy system is provided in the components belonging to [[Energy supply and demand]]. Moreover, a detailed description on emissions can be found in [[Emissions]]. As indicated in [[Figure 8.1.1]], the various parts of the energy system are closely connected. This implies that achieving a particular goal also has important consequences for other goals. For instance, climate policies can lead to less fossil-fuel use and therefore also may reduce air pollution. A brief description on how the various goals are included in IMAGE is provided below.
|Description=<h2>Model description</h2>
Most processes in achieving energy goals are directly related to the IMAGE energy model ([[Energy supply and demand]]). The relationship of these processes to the goals formulated for energy systems is presented in the figure below, which also indicates measures to be taken in the system. 
{{DisplayFigureLeftOptimalTemplate|Flowchart APEP}}


===Energy security===
<h2>Policy issues</h2>
===Baseline developments===
The energy system is described in Section 4.1, and emissions in Chapter 5. As indicated in Figure 8.2.1, parts of the energy system are closely linked and  thus achieving a specific policy goal has consequences for other goals. For instance, climate policies can lead to less use of fossil fuel, and thus also reduction in air pollution. How these goals are included in IMAGE is described briefly below.
The concept of energy security is widely used, yet there is no consensus on its precise interpretation. Some deal with one aspect of energy security, such as resource estimates, reserve-to-production ratios, diversity indices and, import dependence, whereas others attempt to capture several relevant elements in a single aggregated index. On the basis of IMAGE results, it is possible to calculate a wide set of indicators, allowing a broad assessment of relevant changes ([[Kruyt et al., 2009]]). Typically, the IMAGE results show that in baseline scenarios without additional policy, depletion of currently known fossil resources accelerates due to increasing global demand. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of producing countries, over the 2010–2030 period. After 2030/2050 however, production of unconventional sources from other regions will diversify the market. For natural gas and certainly for coal, depletion dynamics are less noticeable in the results.


Some specific policies can be explored in IMAGE to improve energy security, in particular, import restrictions, preferences for particular fuels and import taxes. More typically, the model can be used to project energy security consequences of the climate policy. Interestingly, IMAGE scenarios also show that climate policy has clear co-benefits for improving energy security. Possible benefits include reduced international trade, increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources ([[PBL, 2012]]). Analysis also shows that import restrictions mostly have a temporarily impact on energy security; as such restrictions typically lead to a faster depletion of domestic resources, they actually worsen long-term energy security ([[Kruyt et al., 2009]]).
<h3>Energy security</h3>


===Energy access===
'''Baseline developments'''
While the concept of energy security is widely used, there is no consensus on its interpretation. Some focus on one aspect of energy security, such as resource estimates, reserve-to-production ratios, diversity indices and, import dependence, while others attempt to capture several elements in a single aggregated index.


===Baseline developments===
On the basis of IMAGE results, a wide set of indicators can be calculated to make  a broad assessment of changes (Kruyt et al., 2009). IMAGE results show that in baseline scenarios without additional policy, depletion of known fossil resources accelerates as a result of increasing global demand. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in fewer producing countries in the 2010–2030 period. After 2030/2050 the market will diversify with production of unconventional sources from other regions. For natural gas and certainly for coal, depletion dynamics are less observable in IMAGE results.
The IMAGE model can also be used to look into energy access issues. The baseline scenario of the [[Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project|Rio+20]] report shows that, without additional policy by 2030, 2.6 billion people will continue to depend on solid fuels for cooking and heating and 1 billion people will have no access to electricity ([[PBL, 2012]]). Low access has been reported to lead not only to development problems, but also to environmental problems.


===Policy interventions===
'''Policy interventions'''
The model defines access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating either by the use of modern fuels or improved biomass stoves. The measures included in the IMAGE analysis include increased investments in the power grid (for access to electricity), fuel subsidies and grants, or micro-lending facilities to make access to credit easier and lower the costs of borrowing money for households ([[Van Ruijven, 2008]]) (to make the transition away from solid fuels for cooking and heating). Furthermore, for households for which a shift away from biomass may still be out of reach under the induced financial policies, improved biomass stoves are distributed, being a cost-effective interim solution. The Roads from Rio+20 report ([[PBL, 2012]]), for instance, explores different measures (subsidies, grid extension) to achieve a 95 % grid connectivity and use of modern fuels for cooking and heating in 2030.  
IMAGE is used to explore policies to improve energy security, particularly import restrictions, fuel preferences  and import taxes. The model is used to project the consequences of climate policy on energy security, and in fact scenarios show that climate policy has co-benefits that improve energy security. Possible benefits include reduced international trade, increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources (PBL, 2012). Analysis shows that import restrictions have a temporary impact on energy security, leading to faster depletion of domestic resources, thus reducing long-term energy security (Kruyt et al., 2009).


===Air pollution===
<h3>Energy access</h3>
 
'''Baseline developments'''
IMAGE can also be used to consider energy access issues. The baseline scenario of the Rio+20 report shows that without additional policy by 2030, 2.6 billion people will continue to depend on solid fuels for cooking and heating and 1 billion people will have no access to electricity (PBL, 2012). Low energy access has been reported to lead to development issues and to environmental issues.
 
'''Policy interventions'''
The model defines access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating by either using modern fuels or improved biomass stoves. To make the transition, the IMAGE analysis include measures such as increased investments in the power grid (for access to electricity), fuel subsidies and grants, and micro-lending facilities for  easier access to credit and lower borrowing costs for households (Van Ruijven, 2008) . For households for which the shift from biomass may still be out of reach under the induced financial policies, improved biomass stoves are distributed as  a cost-effective interim solution. The Roads from Rio+20 report (PBL, 2012), for instance, explored measures, such as subsidies and grid extension, to achieve 95 % grid connectivity and use of modern fuels for cooking and heating in 2030.
 
<h3>Air pollution</h3>
 
'''Baseline developments'''
Indoor and outdoor air pollution which have negative health impacts are key issues for energy policies. IMAGE is used to explore air pollution policies, particularly in relation to climate policy. In the baseline scenario of the Rio+20 project, for instance, emissions of air pollutants remain at high levels globally (PBL, 2012). Black carbon emissions are projected to decrease towards 2050, while SO2 emissions remain constant and NOx emissions increase. Another key factor is the ageing  population because the impacts of air pollution are felt especially by the elderly.
 
'''Policy intervention'''
Emissions of air pollutants may be reduced by either a change in energy use or  end-of-pipe abatement measures. In IMAGE, the first policy category can be modelled explicitly, for instance, as a result of climate policy. Many technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also lead to less emissions of air pollutants.  End-of-pipe policies can only be implemented by changing the emission factors (in an aggregated way). However, by relating improvement rates to those of more explicit models, it is still possible to perform policy relevant experiments.


===Baseline developments===
Both indoor and outdoor air pollution are important issues for energy policies. Air pollution can have negative impacts on health and air pollution. IMAGE can be used to explore air pollution policies, particularly, in relation to climate policy. In the baseline scenario of the [[Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project|Rio+20]] project, for instance, emissions of air pollutants stay globally at high levels ([[PBL, 2012]]). Black carbon emissions are projected to decrease towards 2050, while SO2 emissions stay constant and NO<sub>x</sub> emissions increase. Another key factor is the ageing of the population, since the impacts of air pollution will especially be felt among the elderly.


===Policy intervention===
The emission of air pollutants may be reduced by either a change in energy use or by implementation of end-of-pipe abatement measures. In IMAGE, the first policy category can be explicitly modelled; for instance, as a result of climate policy. It should be noted that many of the technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also lead to fewer air pollutant emissions. End-of-pipe policies can only be implemented by changing the emission factors (in a rather aggregated way). However, by relating the improvement rates to those of more explicit models, it is still possible to perform policy relevant experiments.
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Revision as of 12:13, 8 April 2014

link to framework components overview

Parts of Air pollution and energy policies/Policy issues

  1. Introduction page
  2. Policy issues
  3. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  4. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Key publications
References


  1. Introduction page
  2. Policy issues
  3. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  4. Overview of references
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