Air pollution and energy policies/Policy issues: Difference between revisions
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<h3>Energy security</h3> | <h3>Energy security</h3> | ||
''Baseline developments'' | |||
While the concept of energy security is widely used, there is no consensus on its interpretation. Some focus on one aspect of energy security, such as resource estimates, reserve-to-production ratios, diversity indices and, import dependence, while others attempt to capture several elements in a single aggregated index. | While the concept of energy security is widely used, there is no consensus on its interpretation. Some focus on one aspect of energy security, such as resource estimates, reserve-to-production ratios, diversity indices and, import dependence, while others attempt to capture several elements in a single aggregated index. | ||
On the basis of IMAGE results, a wide set of indicators can be calculated to make a broad assessment of changes (Kruyt et al., 2009). IMAGE results show that in baseline scenarios without additional policy, depletion of known fossil resources accelerates as a result of increasing global demand. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in fewer producing countries in the 2010–2030 period. After 2030/2050 the market will diversify with production of unconventional sources from other regions. For natural gas and certainly for coal, depletion dynamics are less observable in IMAGE results. | On the basis of IMAGE results, a wide set of indicators can be calculated to make a broad assessment of changes (Kruyt et al., 2009). IMAGE results show that in baseline scenarios without additional policy, depletion of known fossil resources accelerates as a result of increasing global demand. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in fewer producing countries in the 2010–2030 period. After 2030/2050 the market will diversify with production of unconventional sources from other regions. For natural gas and certainly for coal, depletion dynamics are less observable in IMAGE results. | ||
''Policy interventions'' | |||
IMAGE is used to explore policies to improve energy security, particularly import restrictions, fuel preferences and import taxes. The model is used to project the consequences of climate policy on energy security, and in fact scenarios show that climate policy has co-benefits that improve energy security. Possible benefits include reduced international trade, increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources (PBL, 2012). Analysis shows that import restrictions have a temporary impact on energy security, leading to faster depletion of domestic resources, thus reducing long-term energy security (Kruyt et al., 2009). | IMAGE is used to explore policies to improve energy security, particularly import restrictions, fuel preferences and import taxes. The model is used to project the consequences of climate policy on energy security, and in fact scenarios show that climate policy has co-benefits that improve energy security. Possible benefits include reduced international trade, increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources (PBL, 2012). Analysis shows that import restrictions have a temporary impact on energy security, leading to faster depletion of domestic resources, thus reducing long-term energy security (Kruyt et al., 2009). | ||
<h3>Energy access</h3> | <h3>Energy access</h3> | ||
''Baseline developments'' | |||
IMAGE can also be used to consider energy access issues. The baseline scenario of the Rio+20 report shows that without additional policy by 2030, 2.6 billion people will continue to depend on solid fuels for cooking and heating and 1 billion people will have no access to electricity (PBL, 2012). Low energy access has been reported to lead to development issues and to environmental issues. | IMAGE can also be used to consider energy access issues. The baseline scenario of the Rio+20 report shows that without additional policy by 2030, 2.6 billion people will continue to depend on solid fuels for cooking and heating and 1 billion people will have no access to electricity (PBL, 2012). Low energy access has been reported to lead to development issues and to environmental issues. | ||
''Policy interventions'' | |||
The model defines access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating by either using modern fuels or improved biomass stoves. To make the transition, the IMAGE analysis include measures such as increased investments in the power grid (for access to electricity), fuel subsidies and grants, and micro-lending facilities for easier access to credit and lower borrowing costs for households (Van Ruijven, 2008) . For households for which the shift from biomass may still be out of reach under the induced financial policies, improved biomass stoves are distributed as a cost-effective interim solution. The Roads from Rio+20 report (PBL, 2012), for instance, explored measures, such as subsidies and grid extension, to achieve 95 % grid connectivity and use of modern fuels for cooking and heating in 2030. | The model defines access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating by either using modern fuels or improved biomass stoves. To make the transition, the IMAGE analysis include measures such as increased investments in the power grid (for access to electricity), fuel subsidies and grants, and micro-lending facilities for easier access to credit and lower borrowing costs for households (Van Ruijven, 2008) . For households for which the shift from biomass may still be out of reach under the induced financial policies, improved biomass stoves are distributed as a cost-effective interim solution. The Roads from Rio+20 report (PBL, 2012), for instance, explored measures, such as subsidies and grid extension, to achieve 95 % grid connectivity and use of modern fuels for cooking and heating in 2030. | ||
<h3>Air pollution</h3> | <h3>Air pollution</h3> | ||
''Baseline developments'' | |||
Indoor and outdoor air pollution which have negative health impacts are key issues for energy policies. IMAGE is used to explore air pollution policies, particularly in relation to climate policy. In the baseline scenario of the Rio+20 project, for instance, emissions of air pollutants remain at high levels globally (PBL, 2012). Black carbon emissions are projected to decrease towards 2050, while SO2 emissions remain constant and NOx emissions increase. Another key factor is the ageing population because the impacts of air pollution are felt especially by the elderly. | Indoor and outdoor air pollution which have negative health impacts are key issues for energy policies. IMAGE is used to explore air pollution policies, particularly in relation to climate policy. In the baseline scenario of the Rio+20 project, for instance, emissions of air pollutants remain at high levels globally (PBL, 2012). Black carbon emissions are projected to decrease towards 2050, while SO2 emissions remain constant and NOx emissions increase. Another key factor is the ageing population because the impacts of air pollution are felt especially by the elderly. | ||
''Policy intervention'' | |||
Emissions of air pollutants may be reduced by either a change in energy use or end-of-pipe abatement measures. In IMAGE, the first policy category can be modelled explicitly, for instance, as a result of climate policy. Many technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also lead to less emissions of air pollutants. End-of-pipe policies can only be implemented by changing the emission factors (in an aggregated way). However, by relating improvement rates to those of more explicit models, it is still possible to perform policy relevant experiments. | Emissions of air pollutants may be reduced by either a change in energy use or end-of-pipe abatement measures. In IMAGE, the first policy category can be modelled explicitly, for instance, as a result of climate policy. Many technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also lead to less emissions of air pollutants. End-of-pipe policies can only be implemented by changing the emission factors (in an aggregated way). However, by relating improvement rates to those of more explicit models, it is still possible to perform policy relevant experiments. | ||
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Revision as of 13:04, 8 April 2014
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