Energy supply/Policy issues: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
|Reference=PBL, 2012;
|Description=Under the baseline scenario, demand for energy increases rapidly, and as a consequence, supply is projected to increase in the coming decades for all energy supply options. Under the baseline scenario, energy demand is mostly met by fossil fuels but shifts in dominant energy carriers and main supply regions are also projected. For coal, the model indicates continuous rise in production, mostly in the regions already producing the largest shares of global output. For oil, the model also shows continuous increase in production in the coming decades, with an increase in unconventional sources, mainly from Canada and South America.
Natural gas is expected to rise faster in production because it is presumed to be more abundant and increasingly more cost competitive, with unconventional sources becoming increasingly more important. Main gas producers are the United States, the former Soviet Union and increasingly the Middle East.
Production of modern types of bioenergy is constantly increasing and in different parts of the world. For solar and wind, the most rapid increase so far has been in western Europe, the United States and China. In the future, parts of South America and India are expected to produce large amounts of renewable energy. Nuclear power is expected to remain roughly at the same level, and uranium production to remain more or less stable and rather evenly distributed across world regions. Finally, hydropower capacity shows a modest increase under the baseline scenario.


|Reference=PBL, 2012;
|Example=The model can simulate various policies on the supply side:
|Description=Under the baseline scenario, demand for energy increases, rapidly. As a consequence, supply is projected to increase over the next decades, for all energy supply options. Under the baseline scenario, energy demand is mostly met through fossil fuels. At the same time, important shifts in dominant energy carriers and main supply regions are projected. For coal, the model indicates a continuous rise in production, mostly in the regions that already produce the largest shares of global output. For oil, the model also shows a continuous production increase for the next decades, with an increasing role for unconventional sources. The last mainly come from Canada and South America. Natural gas is expected to show a faster rise in production, as it is presumed to be more abundant and increasingly cost-competitive. Here, too, unconventional sources will become more important. Main gas producers are the United States, the former Soviet Union and increasingly also the Middle East. Production of modern types of bio-energy is constantly increasing – and in different parts of the world. For solar and wind, the most rapid increase, so far, has been in western Europe, the United States and China. For the future, also certain parts of South America and India are expected to start producing large amounts of renewable energy. Nuclear power is expected to remain roughly at the same level, and uranium production remains more or less stable and rather evenly distributed across world regions. Finally, hydropower capacity, under the baseline scenario, shows a modest increase.
* Carbon tax. As discussed, a carbon tax can lead to significant changes in the demand for fuels and therefore, also supply.  
|Example=The figure below shows how the introduction of stringent climate policy influences the production of primary energy resources. Clearly, climate policy leads to a major shift, from a system that is mostly based on fossil fuels to an increase in the use of nuclear power, renewable energy, bio-energy and CCS technology, with a correspondingly lower reliance on fossil fuels. The choice of these alternative options depends on assumptions made in the model. In the different scenarios elaborated in the study '  [[Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project]]’ ([[PBL, 2012]]), this has been shown in three pathways, which, based on different initial assumptions, emphasise the use of the different combinations of primary energy carriers, each time within a stringent emission constraint.
* Restrictions on fuel trade. As part of energy security policies, fuel trade between different regions can be blocked.
* Sustainability criteria for bioenergy production may restrict production in water-scarce areas.
* Production targets are mostly set to force technologies through a learning curve.
The influence of stringent climate policy on production of primary energy resources is shown in Figure below. Climate policy leads to a major shift from a system mostly based on fossil fuels to an increase in the use of nuclear power, renewable energy, bioenergy and {{abbrTemplate|CCS}} technology, with a correspondingly lower reliance on fossil fuels. The choice of these alternative options depends on assumptions made in the model, as shown in the scenarios in the study [[Roads from Rio+20]] (2012) project|Roads from Rio+20]] ([[PBL, 2012]]). Three pathways based on different initial assumptions emphasise different combinations of primary energy carriers, each time within a stringent emission constraint.
See also Policy interventions Table below.
}}
}}

Revision as of 17:33, 22 May 2014

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Energy supply/Policy issues

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Aggregated component:Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Key publications
References
TIMER model, energy supply module
Flowchart Energy supply. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
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