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==The energy supply and demand model (TIMER)==
==The energy supply and demand model (TIMER)==
The IMage Energy Regional model, also referred to as [[TIMER model|TIMER]], has been developed to explore scenarios for the energy system in the broader context of the IMAGE global environmental assessment framework ([[De Vries et al., 2001]]; [[Van Vuuren, 2007]]). TIMER describes 12 primary energy carriers in 26 world regions and is used to analyse long-term trends in energy demand and supply in the context of the sustainable development challenges<ref>The words energy demand and energy use are often used interchangeably. However, in the past data were about statistical energy use. For the future, trends were extrapolated and denoted as energy demand, which in the model is assumed to be fully supplied and thus equal to use.</ref>. The model simulates long-term trends in energy use, issues related to depletion, energy-related greenhouse gas and other air polluting emissions, together with land-use demand for energy crops. The focus is on dynamic relationships in the energy system, such as inertia and learning-by-doing in capital stocks, depletion of the resource base and trade between regions.  
The IMage Energy Regional model, also referred to as [[TIMER model|TIMER]], has been developed to explore scenarios for the energy system in the broader context of the IMAGE global environmental assessment framework ([[De Vries et al., 2001]]; [[Van Vuuren, 2007]]). TIMER describes 12 primary energy carriers in 26 world regions and is used to analyse long-term trends in energy demand and supply in the context of the sustainable development challenges<ref>The words energy demand and energy use are often used interchangeably. However, in the past data were about statistical energy use. For the future, trends were extrapolated and denoted as energy demand, which in the model is assumed to be fully supplied and thus equal to use.</ref>. The model simulates long-term trends in energy use, issues related to depletion, energy-related greenhouse gas and other air polluting emissions, together with land-use demand for energy crops. The focus is on dynamic relationships in the energy system, such as inertia and learning-by-doing in capital stocks, depletion of the resource base and trade between regions.  
Similar to other IMAGE components, TIMER is a simulation model. The results obtained depend on a single set of deterministic algorithms, according to which the system state in any future year is derived entirely from previous system states. In this respect, TIMER differs from most macroeconomic models, which let the system evolve on the basis of minimising cost or maximising utility under boundary conditions. As such, TIMER can be compared to energy simulation models, such as POLES ([[Criqui et al., 2003]]) and GCAM ([[Thomson et al., 2011]]).
Similar to other IMAGE components, TIMER is a simulation model. The results obtained depend on a single set of deterministic algorithms, according to which the system state in any future year is derived entirely from previous system states. In this respect, TIMER differs from most macroeconomic models, which let the system evolve on the basis of minimising cost or maximising utility under boundary conditions. As such, TIMER can be compared to energy simulation models, such as POLES ([[Criqui et al., 2003]]) and GCAM ([[Thomson et al., 2011]]).


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==Model description==
==Overview of TIMER==
The energy supply and demand model ([[TIMER model|TIMER]]) has three components: 1) [[Energy demand]], 2) [[Energy conversion]], and 3) [[Energy supply]] (see figure on the right). Energy demand is determined for five main economic sectors (industry, transport, residential, services and other). For some energy carriers, such as electricity and hydrogen, energy conversion models describe how these carriers are produced. A final set of models describes the production of primary energy carriers. The model calculates prices endogenously for both primary and secondary energy carriers that drive investment in the technologies associated with these carriers. The description of the different energy flows allows for calculating greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. The three model components are presented in more detail in the next sections.
The energy model has three components: energy demand; energy conversion; and energy supply (Figure 4.1.1). The energy demand component describes how energy demand is determined for five economic sectors -industry, transport, residential, services and other sectors. The energy conversion components describes how carriers such as electricity and hydrogen are produced. Finally, the energy supply modules describe the production of primary energy carriers, and calculate prices endogenously for both primary and secondary energy carriers that drive investment in the technologies associated with these carriers. The energy flows in all three main components allow calculation of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.


==Data, uncertainties and limitations==
The energy model TIMER focuses on long-term trends in energy supply and demand. It was mainly developed for analysing climate mitigation strategies and has also been used to explore other sustainability issues. These characteristics impose some limitations on the model. Firstly, the model cannot be used to examine macroeconomic consequences of mitigation strategies, such as GDP losses, because other aspects of the economy are not included. Secondly, the strategies depicted by the model are not necessarily optimal from an inter-temporal perspective because as a simulation model, there is no information on future development in a scenario (myopic). Instead, decisions are made on the basis of available model information at that time in the scenario. Finally, although the model has been used to analyse sustainability issues other than climate change, still much less options have been included to explore such policies (see Section 8.2).
The energy supply and demand model (TIMER) is a simulation, energy system model that focuses on long-term trends in energy supply and demand. It has been mainly developed in the context of analysing climate mitigation strategies – although it has been used to explore other sustainability issues, as well. These characteristics also impose some limitations on the model. First of all, the model cannot be used to look into macroeconomic consequences of mitigation strategies (such as [[GDP]] losses), as it simply does not include a description of parts of the economy other than energy. Second, the strategies depicted by the model are not necessarily optimal from an intertemporal perspective, as a simulation model has no information on future development in a scenario (myopic); instead, decisions are made on the basis of available model information at that moment in the scenario. Finally, although the model has been used to look into sustainability issues other than climate change, at the moment, some of the options for target setting (e.g. with the climate policy model – see [[Impacts]]) have not been fully developed.
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Revision as of 11:10, 5 May 2014

Composition of Energy supply and demand

  1. Energy conversion
  2. Energy demand
  3. Energy supply

Additional info

  • Technical learning
    • Link to framework components overview
    Component is implemented in:
    Aggregated component:Components:
    Projects/Applications
    Models/Databases
    Key publications
    References
    TIMER, the energy demand and supply model in IMAGE 3.0
    Flowchart Energy supply and demand. Overview of the IMAGE/TIMER model

    Description of Energy supply and demand


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