Human development/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions
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* Poverty: poverty data ([[Chen and Ravallion, 2008]]) and GINI coefficients ([[Ackah et al., 2009]]) | * Poverty: poverty data ([[Chen and Ravallion, 2008]]) and GINI coefficients ([[Ackah et al., 2009]]) | ||
* Education: enrolment ratios per education level ([[World Bank, 2009]]) and educational attainment ([[Lutz et al., 2007]]) | * Education: enrolment ratios per education level ([[World Bank, 2009]]) and educational attainment ([[Lutz et al., 2007]]) | ||
Per-capita food intake is based on [[FAOSTAT database]], applied as averages per region, in the first year, and extended into the future by using food consumption data from MAGNET. The trends in per-capita food availability determined in | Per-capita food intake is based on [[FAOSTAT database]], applied as averages per region, in the first year, and extended into the future by using food consumption data from the [[MAGNET model]]. The trends in per-capita food availability determined in MAGNET model use income elasticities for broad groups of crops and animal products, while these trends are not necessarily linked to physical limitations on consumption levels. Also for water and energy, aggregations of different technologies to broad groups mask the underlying heterogeneity, and thus lead to uncertainties in model behaviour. Improved access to water supply and sanitation encompasses a broad range of forms of connection, each of which is assumed to carry the same potential health risk. The same holds for access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating that encompass a broad range of traditional fuel and fuel-stove combinations. Finally, health impacts are based on exposure-response relationships (described in the literature). It is assumed that these relationships are the same across the globe, and stay constant over time. It should further be noted that many parameters are based on cross-sectional relationships with per-capita GDP ([[PPP]]), making the outcomes rather dependent on this parameter. | ||
The model also has some important limitations. A general limitation is the limited representation of the heterogeneous characteristics within populations. Mostly, a population average combined with a stylised distribution function is applied. This may not fully represent the distributional aspects, as in reality many of these issues may be concentrated in particular populations, and, more importantly, these distribution functions do not change in the model over time, while they probably do in reality. Furthermore, although health service efficacy and enrolment ratios are driven in the model by investments in health and education services, these investments are not restricted by a limit on total investments. Similarly, the investments in drinking water and sanitation are not made explicit in the model but are derived from achieved coverage. Therefore, analysis on these topics can only be done by using pre-determined what-if scenarios instead of analysing the effect of specific investments in health outcomes. | The model also has some important limitations. A general limitation is the limited representation of the heterogeneous characteristics within populations. Mostly, a population average combined with a stylised distribution function is applied. This may not fully represent the distributional aspects, as in reality many of these issues may be concentrated in particular populations, and, more importantly, these distribution functions do not change in the model over time, while they probably do in reality. Furthermore, although health service efficacy and enrolment ratios are driven in the model by investments in health and education services, these investments are not restricted by a limit on total investments. Similarly, the investments in drinking water and sanitation are not made explicit in the model but are derived from achieved coverage. Therefore, analysis on these topics can only be done by using pre-determined what-if scenarios instead of analysing the effect of specific investments in health outcomes. | ||
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Revision as of 18:32, 10 December 2013
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