Human development/Policy issues
Parts of Human development
|Component is implemented in:|
|Related IMAGE components|
In the past, the GISMO model has been used to evaluate several baseline scenarios, including the baseline scenario of the Rio+20 study. In this scenario (and in most others), access to food, improved drinking water, basic sanitation and modern energy sources all increase significantly up to 2050. Yet, even under large increases, a significant proportion of the population will still be without adequate services, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. By 2050, around 300 million people will be without adequate access to food, 250 million without sustainable access to safe drinking water, 1.4 billion without basic sanitation and 1.9 billion without access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating. Global child mortality is projected to reduce significantly, from 67 deaths per 1000 children born in 2010 to fewer than 45 by 2030 and 28 by 2050, with large improvements in all world regions (see Figure on the left). To comply with MDG4, child mortality, by 2015, should be reduced to around 30 deaths per 1000 children born. Without new policies, this target will not be achieved before 2030, mainly due to persistent high levels of child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (see also PBL 2009).
Policy interventions to decrease human health loss and child mortality rates can be classified as:
- (primary) prevention, i.e. eliminating or reducing health risks;
- curation, i.e investing in health systems that lower the chances of dying of a particular disease or due to a health hazard.
Prevention generally relates to taking away risk by:
- increasing access levels by lowering prices and investing in infrastructure;
- improving the quality of access through, for example, household connections to the drinking-water supply and LPG or kerosene instead of using improved biomass stoves;
- improving behaviour through female education, hygiene measures and good ventilation;
- mitigating environmental changes, such as climate change, biodiversity loss and water stress.
The GISMO model addresses the first three options, whereas the last option is addressed in other parts of the IMAGE framework.
The figure on the left presents the results from two policy scenarios in addition to the baseline scenario (see also PBL, 2012). The first scenario (Global Technology Pathway) addresses improving access to food, water and energy:
- By 2030, all people will have access to modern energy sources or at least will use improved biomass stoves for cooking
- By 2050, hunger will be eradicated
- By 2050 all people will have access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation
The second scenario (Challenge+) adds quality of access and some elements of behavioural change to the access scenario:
- By 2050, access to safe drinking water for all households
- By 2050, full transition towards modern energy carriers for cooking and heating
- By 2030, full enrolment of girls in secondary education
The policies on food and energy in the first scenario are handled in other parts of the IMAGE framework. Access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation is forced exogenously and therefore not dynamically modelled. As a result, the global child mortality rate is projected to improve by 12% by 2030, and by more than 26% by 2050, compared to the baseline scenario. The policies in the second scenario are stylised in the sense that they are not calculated using the full modelling framework and, therefore, do not take into account socioeconomic and environmental constraints. Under this scenario, child mortality will improves by almost 25% by 2030 and 34% by 2050, compared to the baseline scenario. Removing health risks through further improved energy and water services, would eliminate most of the attributable mortality. Furthermore, a stronger focus on female education would lead to better child nutrition of children and reduces child underweight.
Effects of policy interventions on this component
|Carbon tax||A tax on carbon leads to higher prices for carbon intensive fuels (such as fossil fuels), making low-carbon alternatives more attractive.||Induces a transition from carbon intensive fuels to carbon low fuels, thereby also lowering outdoor air pollution. Lower air pollution reduces mortality rates through reduced incidence of lung cancer, cardiopulmonary diseases and acute respiratory infections|
|Closing the yield gap||This intervention increases actual yields (reduces the gap between potential and actual yields), usually realized by better management.||Increases food security, thereby reducing child underweight. This in turn reduces child mortality as lower levels of child underweight result in a lower incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia and a lower case fatality of malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and protein energy deficiency|
|Improve behaviour (*)||Reduce the health impacts of malnutrition and inadequate access to safe drinking water, basic sanitaion and modern sources of energy, through, for example, improving female education, promoting good hygiene and providing good indoor good ventilation||Decreases chil moratality by lowering the incidence of child underweight, diarrhoea and pneumonia|
|Improve quality of access (*)||Improve the quality of access to drinking water, sanitation and modern sources of energy, through, for example, household connections to drinking-water supply and the use of LPG or kerosene instead of traditional biomass on improved biomass stoves||Reduces child mortality by lowering the incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia|
|Increase access to food (*)||Increase access to food by targeting food prices for the poorest households||Increases food security, thereby reducing child underweight. This in turn reduces child mortality as lower levels of child underweight result in a lower incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia and a lower case fatality of malaria, diarrhoea, pneumonia and protein energy deficiency|
|Increase access to water (*)||Increase access to safe drinking water and improved sanitation by lowering prices and investing in infrastructure||Reduces child mortality by lowering the incidence of diarrhoea|
|Provision on improved stoves for traditional bio-energy||Increases the efficiency of bio-energy use.||Reduces indoor air pollution. This reduces child mortality due to lower incidence of pneumonia|
|Subsidies on modern energy||Reduces the costs of modern energy to reduce traditional energy use (can be targeted to low income groups).||Reduces indoor air pollution. This reduces child motality due to lower incidence of pneumonia|