Drivers/Scenario drivers: Difference between revisions
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<h2>Scenario drivers</h2> | <h2>Scenario drivers</h2> | ||
When considering how the world might unfold in the longer term, six key scenario drivers are distinguished: | When considering how the world might unfold in the longer term, six key scenario drivers are distinguished: | ||
* demographics | * demographics; | ||
* economics | * economics; | ||
* culture and lifestyle | * culture and lifestyle; | ||
* natural resources | * natural resources; | ||
* technological development | * technological development; | ||
* policy and governance environment. | * policy and governance environment. | ||
To a large degree these scenario drivers are interdependent, and their future direction is often inferred from a simple to very elaborate ‘storyline’ or narrative. Such storylines describe the type and function of the scenario at hand: a reference projection with no new policies, a single ‘best-guess’ projection combining trends from the past with assumptions about how they might unfold in the future, multiple contrasting scenarios that span a range of uncertainty about the future, or a specific or broad policy scenario aiming to improve future outcomes. For examples, see ([[PBL, 2010]]; [[OECD, 2008]]; [[OECD, 2012]]; [[UNEP, 2011]]; [[PBL, 2011]]) | To a large degree these scenario drivers are interdependent, and their future direction is often inferred from a simple to very elaborate ‘storyline’ or narrative. Such storylines describe the type and function of the scenario at hand: a reference projection with no new policies, a single ‘best-guess’ projection combining trends from the past with assumptions about how they might unfold in the future, multiple contrasting scenarios that span a range of uncertainty about the future, or a specific or broad policy scenario aiming to improve future outcomes. For examples, see ([[PBL, 2010]]; [[OECD, 2008]]; [[OECD, 2012]]; [[UNEP, 2011]]; [[PBL, 2011]]) | ||
Revision as of 14:17, 24 January 2014
Parts of Drivers/Scenario drivers
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| Models/Databases |
| Relevant overviews |
| Key publications |
| References |
