Drivers/Scenario drivers: Difference between revisions
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|Reference=PBL, 2010; OECD, 2008; OECD, 2012; UNEP, 2011; PBL, 2011; Chateau et al., 2013; IPCC, 2000; MA, 2005; | |Reference=PBL, 2010; OECD, 2008; OECD, 2012; UNEP, 2011; PBL, 2011; Chateau et al., 2013; IPCC, 2000; MA, 2005; | ||
|Description=When considering how the world might unfold in the longer term, six key scenario drivers are distinguished: demographics, economics, culture and lifestyle, natural resources, technological development and the policy and governance environment. To a large degree these scenario drivers are interdependent, and their future direction is often inferred from a simple to very elaborate ‘storyline’ or narrative. Such storylines describe the type and function of the scenario at hand: a reference projection with no new policies, a single ‘best-guess’ projection combining trends from the past with assumptions about how they might unfold in the future, multiple contrasting scenarios that span a range of uncertainty about the future, or a specific or broad policy scenario aiming to improve future outcomes. For examples, see ([[PBL, 2010]]; [[OECD, 2008]]; [[OECD, 2012]]; [[UNEP, 2011]]; [[PBL, 2011]]) | |Description={{DisplayFigureTemplate|Flowchart D}} | ||
When considering how the world might unfold in the longer term, six key scenario drivers are distinguished: demographics, economics, culture and lifestyle, natural resources, technological development and the policy and governance environment. To a large degree these scenario drivers are interdependent, and their future direction is often inferred from a simple to very elaborate ‘storyline’ or narrative. Such storylines describe the type and function of the scenario at hand: a reference projection with no new policies, a single ‘best-guess’ projection combining trends from the past with assumptions about how they might unfold in the future, multiple contrasting scenarios that span a range of uncertainty about the future, or a specific or broad policy scenario aiming to improve future outcomes. For examples, see ([[PBL, 2010]]; [[OECD, 2008]]; [[OECD, 2012]]; [[UNEP, 2011]]; [[PBL, 2011]]) | |||
==Demographics== | ==Demographics== | ||
Revision as of 12:58, 11 December 2013
Parts of Drivers/Scenario drivers
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| Models/Databases |
| Relevant overviews |
| Key publications |
| References |
