Drivers: Difference between revisions

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{{DriverComponentTemplate
{{DriverComponentTemplate
 
|Application=Millennium Ecosystem Assessment - MA (2005) project; OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 (2012) project; IPCC SRES (2000) project; Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSP (2014) project
|Application=Millennium Ecosystem Assessment project; OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 (2012) project; IPCC SRES (2000) project; SSP project
|Overview=Framework overview; Variable overview; Policy interventions and components overview;
|Overview=Framework overview; Variable overview;
|Model-Database=ENV-Growth model; MAGNET model;
|ExternalModel=ENV-Growth model; MAGNET model;
|KeyReference=IPCC, 2000; OECD, 2012; MA, 2005;
|KeyReference=IPCC, 2000; OECD, 2012; MA, 2005;
|Description=In order for the IMAGE model to explore future scenarios, exogenous assumptions need to be made for a range of factors that shape the direction and rate of change in key model variables and results. Together with the endogenous functional relationships and endogenous model parameters that jointly typify the behaviour of the model, these exogenous assumptions drive the outcome of any particular model calculation. In other words, these assumptions are the drivers that determine the model results subject to the assumed external conditions.
For IMAGE, six groups of assumptions are distinguished that make up the scenario drivers. These drivers are the basis of any scenario and are generally rooted in a scenario narrative or storyline. This includes cases where current trends and dynamics are assumed to continue into the future; commonly referred to as reference or ‘business-as-usual’ cases. As a rule, scenario drivers do not constitute numerical model inputs, but they do govern in qualitative or semi-quantitative terms the more elaborate set of exogenous assumptions in terms of model input  files for the various parts of the model framework. In other words, numerical model drivers for any specific scenario will need to be established on the basis of the six more generic scenario drivers. The model drivers for the various modules are explained in more detail in the model components (these can be accessed via [[Framework_overview]]) . The scenario drivers and underlying narrative, together with the concrete quantitative model drivers form a scenario, inextricably linked with the results from the IMAGE scenario run.
|ComponentCode=D
|ComponentCode=D
|FrameworkElementType=driver component
|FrameworkElementType=driver component
}}
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[[Page has default form::DriverComponentForm| ]]
==Description of {{ROOTPAGENAME}}==
Several trends play a critical role in the future development of critical model variables and results, such as population size and economic development. For several of these, exogenous assumptions are made. These exogenous assumptions drive the outcome of model calculations, together with the endogenous functional relationships and model parameters in the model. These critical factors are referred to as drivers. In IMAGE, six groups of assumptions are distinguished that make up the scenario drivers.
 
These six groups are the basis for all scenarios. The assumptions for the drivers are based on scenario narratives or storylines. The advantage of these narratives that consistent assumptions can be made. The narratives include cases where current trends and dynamics are assumed to continue, commonly referred to as a reference or ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios. The narratives can also describe a set of contrasting future futures for the drivers to explore the relevant range of uncertain yet plausible developments.
 
As a rule, scenario drivers are not numerical model inputs but, in qualitative or semi-quantitative terms, govern a detailed set of exogenous assumptions in terms of model input to the various components of the model framework. Numerical model drivers for a specific scenario are established based on the six generic scenario drivers. The model drivers for the various IMAGE models and modules (called components on the site) are explained in the component pages (see [[Framework overview]]). The scenario drivers and underlying narrative, together with the quantitative model drivers, form a scenario inextricably linked with an IMAGE scenario run.
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Latest revision as of 11:46, 8 October 2021

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Drivers

  1. Introduction page
  2. Scenario drivers
  3. Model drivers
  4. Policy issues
  5. Overview of references
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Relevant overviews
Key publications
Scenario development and model drivers for IMAGE 3.0
Flowchart Drivers. Model drives are inferred from scenario storylines taking into account external data sources, such as time series, cross-sector data, and literature sources.

Description of Drivers

Several trends play a critical role in the future development of critical model variables and results, such as population size and economic development. For several of these, exogenous assumptions are made. These exogenous assumptions drive the outcome of model calculations, together with the endogenous functional relationships and model parameters in the model. These critical factors are referred to as drivers. In IMAGE, six groups of assumptions are distinguished that make up the scenario drivers.

These six groups are the basis for all scenarios. The assumptions for the drivers are based on scenario narratives or storylines. The advantage of these narratives that consistent assumptions can be made. The narratives include cases where current trends and dynamics are assumed to continue, commonly referred to as a reference or ‘business-as-usual’ scenarios. The narratives can also describe a set of contrasting future futures for the drivers to explore the relevant range of uncertain yet plausible developments.

As a rule, scenario drivers are not numerical model inputs but, in qualitative or semi-quantitative terms, govern a detailed set of exogenous assumptions in terms of model input to the various components of the model framework. Numerical model drivers for a specific scenario are established based on the six generic scenario drivers. The model drivers for the various IMAGE models and modules (called components on the site) are explained in the component pages (see Framework overview). The scenario drivers and underlying narrative, together with the quantitative model drivers, form a scenario inextricably linked with an IMAGE scenario run.

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