Drivers/Scenario drivers: Difference between revisions
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The quantity of a resource available in the future depends on exogenous assumptions for the scenarios. The estimated quantities depend on the assumed future technology capabilities, policies and human preferences. Higher estimates of non-conventional fossil fuels and nuclear fuel reserves are associated with technology optimism, for example, estimates of natural gas reserves depend on whether the extraction of deep seabed methane is considered a viable option. Nature conservation and other issues may limit the potential for natural land conversion for agriculture, but may also impose limits on hydroelectricity generation. | The quantity of a resource available in the future depends on exogenous assumptions for the scenarios. The estimated quantities depend on the assumed future technology capabilities, policies and human preferences. Higher estimates of non-conventional fossil fuels and nuclear fuel reserves are associated with technology optimism, for example, estimates of natural gas reserves depend on whether the extraction of deep seabed methane is considered a viable option. Nature conservation and other issues may limit the potential for natural land conversion for agriculture, but may also impose limits on hydroelectricity generation. | ||
In IMAGE 3.0, renewable and non-renewable energy resources are modelled by volume and price, see Component [[Energy supply]]. Similarly, the potential land for agriculture ranked according to suitability and is subject to nature conservation policies, limits future land conversion, see Component [[ | In IMAGE 3.0, renewable and non-renewable energy resources are modelled by volume and price, see Component [[Energy supply]]. Similarly, the potential land for agriculture ranked according to suitability and is subject to nature conservation policies, limits future land conversion, see Component [[Land-use allocation]]. | ||
===Relationships between scenario drivers=== | ===Relationships between scenario drivers=== | ||
Assumptions made in one of the six scenario drivers depend, to a lesser or greater extent, on assumptions in one or more of the other scenario drivers. Thus, the plausibility of a set of drivers and of an individual driver hinges on careful consideration of the nature and direction of these relationships. An overarching story or narrative has proven helpful in selecting meaningful combinations of scenario drivers ([[IPCC, 2000]]; [[MA, 2005]]). | Assumptions made in one of the six scenario drivers depend, to a lesser or greater extent, on assumptions in one or more of the other scenario drivers. Thus, the plausibility of a set of drivers and of an individual driver hinges on careful consideration of the nature and direction of these relationships. An overarching story or narrative has proven helpful in selecting meaningful combinations of scenario drivers ([[IPCC, 2000]]; [[MA, 2005]]). | ||
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Revision as of 17:39, 16 May 2014
Parts of Drivers/Scenario drivers
| Projects/Applications |
| Models/Databases |
| Relevant overviews |
| Key publications |
| References |
