Drivers/Model drivers: Difference between revisions
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|PageLabel=Model drivers | |PageLabel=Model drivers | ||
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|Reference=FAO, 2013a; Bruinsma, 2003; FAO, | |Reference=FAO, 2013a; Bruinsma, 2003; FAO, 2006a; | ||
|Description=<h2>Model drivers</h2> | |Description=<h2>Model drivers</h2> | ||
Direct model drivers are inferred from the scenario drivers, and are used to set parameter values used in IMAGE 3.0. Their start values are estimated from literature and data, and future changes in values are inferred from the ultimate drivers. The resulting parameter values are used as input for different parts of IMAGE 3.0. A selection of key model drivers is given in The table below, for further details and other model drivers not shown here; see the framework components ([[Framework overview]]) | Direct model drivers are inferred from the scenario drivers, and are used to set parameter values used in IMAGE 3.0. Their start values are estimated from literature and data, and future changes in values are inferred from the ultimate drivers. The resulting parameter values are used as input for different parts of IMAGE 3.0. A selection of key model drivers is given in The table below, for further details and other model drivers not shown here; see the framework components ([[Framework overview]]) | ||
==Example of a model driver: management factor== | ==Example of a model driver: management factor== | ||
The management factor ([[MF]]) describes the actual yield per crop group and per socio-economic region as a multiplier of the maximum potential yield; where the latter is estimated taking inhomogeneous soil and climate data across grid-cells into account. Up to 2005 the MF is estimated as part of the calibration procedure of IMAGE, making use of FAO statistics on actual crop yield and crop area ([[FAO, 2013a]]). The start year level of the MF is then the point of departure for the projection into the future. The most important guidance is provided by assumptions in FAO projections up to 2030 ([[Bruinsma, 2003]]) and extensions to 2050 ([[FAO, | The management factor ([[MF]]) describes the actual yield per crop group and per socio-economic region as a multiplier of the maximum potential yield; where the latter is estimated taking inhomogeneous soil and climate data across grid-cells into account. Up to 2005 the MF is estimated as part of the calibration procedure of IMAGE, making use of FAO statistics on actual crop yield and crop area ([[FAO, 2013a]]). The start year level of the MF is then the point of departure for the projection into the future. The most important guidance is provided by assumptions in FAO projections up to 2030 ([[Bruinsma, 2003]]) and extensions to 2050 ([[FAO, 2006a]]]). The FAO trends are used as exogenous technical factor in the [[MAGNET model]], and subsequently adjusted to reflect the relative scarcity of suitable land as part of the model calculation. The combination of production volumes and land areas from MAGNET are then adopted to serve as MF projections into the future for IMAGE. However, the FAO estimates are not adopted as is, but revised to reflect substantial differences in underlying drivers between the FAO projection and the IMAGE scenario. For example: much higher income growth in a region than assumed by FAO may be considered less consistent with low and slowly improving MFs for that region. This because strong economic growth is typically facilitated by rapid technology development and deployment, rising wages and a shift from labour from primary production sectors (agriculture) to secondary (industry) and tertiary sectors. Such developments all foster more advanced management and technology in agriculture, with accelerated increase of the MFs. By contrast, stagnating economic development may well imply that MFs would lag behind what the FAO assumes. As the MF is such a decisive factor in the future net agricultural land area, it warrants very careful consideration of uncertainties. | ||
==Table of drivers== | ==Table of drivers== | ||
{{DriverTableTemplate}} | {{DriverTableTemplate}} | ||
}} | }} | ||
Revision as of 10:26, 2 May 2014
Parts of Drivers/Model drivers
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| Models/Databases |
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| Key publications |
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