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<h3>Culture and lifestyle</h3> For comparable levels of affluence, the observed behaviour of societies with respect to consumption differs strongly between countries and regions, and to a lesser extent also within countries. The modal split of passenger transport between walking, cycling, cars, buses, trains, boats and planes depend on income, but also on traditions and habits engrained in social groups. Preference for different foodstuffs depends on availability and affordability, but also strongly on cultural factors. These may be inspired by religion (no pork for Jewish and Islamic households; no beef or no meat at all for Hindus; etc.), but also by tradition, public moral and health concerns. In addition, concerns over environmental degradation, animal welfare, inter-regional and intergenerational equity and other issues can influence actual behavior, in accordance with dominant societal norms and values. Consumer preferences and lifestyles can change over time, as norms and values can change. The direction and rate of such changes can be inferred from the underlying scenario storyline. Policies may be put in place to enable, encourage or even enforce such changes, given sufficient public support. | <h3>Culture and lifestyle</h3> For comparable levels of affluence, the observed behaviour of societies with respect to consumption differs strongly between countries and regions, and to a lesser extent also within countries. The modal split of passenger transport between walking, cycling, cars, buses, trains, boats and planes depend on income, but also on traditions and habits engrained in social groups. Preference for different foodstuffs depends on availability and affordability, but also strongly on cultural factors. These may be inspired by religion (no pork for Jewish and Islamic households; no beef or no meat at all for Hindus; etc.), but also by tradition, public moral and health concerns. In addition, concerns over environmental degradation, animal welfare, inter-regional and intergenerational equity and other issues can influence actual behavior, in accordance with dominant societal norms and values. Consumer preferences and lifestyles can change over time, as norms and values can change. The direction and rate of such changes can be inferred from the underlying scenario storyline. Policies may be put in place to enable, encourage or even enforce such changes, given sufficient public support. | ||
< | <h3>Natural resource availability</h3> | ||
Ultimate natural resources are considered a given and are not subject to adjustment by human activities, other than depletion of non-renewable resources by transforming them. For example extracting coal from underground deposits to burn them to generate thermal energy and a range of -mostly gaseous-substances- including carbon dioxide. Similarly, the total land surface is fixed, except for relatively limited man-made expansion of land into shallow coastal waters. Human activities such as agriculture and forestry, however, transform the land-cover and land-use and thereby alter the quantity of suitable land for agriculture.. | Ultimate natural resources are considered a given and are not subject to adjustment by human activities, other than depletion of non-renewable resources by transforming them. For example extracting coal from underground deposits to burn them to generate thermal energy and a range of -mostly gaseous-substances- including carbon dioxide. Similarly, the total land surface is fixed, except for relatively limited man-made expansion of land into shallow coastal waters. Human activities such as agriculture and forestry, however, transform the land-cover and land-use and thereby alter the quantity of suitable land for agriculture.. | ||
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In IMAGE 3.0 renewable and non-renewable energy resource by volume and price are explicitly modeled; see section 4.1.3. Similarly the potential for land to be used for agriculture, ranked by suitability and subject to nature conservation policies, sets boundaries on future land conversion; see section 4.2.3. | In IMAGE 3.0 renewable and non-renewable energy resource by volume and price are explicitly modeled; see section 4.1.3. Similarly the potential for land to be used for agriculture, ranked by suitability and subject to nature conservation policies, sets boundaries on future land conversion; see section 4.2.3. | ||
< | <h3>Technological change</h3> | ||
At the overall scenario level, assumptions about technological progress are the all-important drivers of economic growth. Given an effective labour force, the increase in labour productivity delineates the potential for economic growth. It is generally assumed that the degree of technological progress at the scenario level is bound to be reflected in all instances where technology plays a role. In other words: rapid technological growth assumptions behind high economic growth rates imply that technologies in specific sectors (energy, agriculture) will also improve relatively quickly. Across and within sectors the directions of technological change may differ, however. For example, renewable energy technologies may improve much more rapidly than fossil fuel based technology, an uncertain factor. | At the overall scenario level, assumptions about technological progress are the all-important drivers of economic growth. Given an effective labour force, the increase in labour productivity delineates the potential for economic growth. It is generally assumed that the degree of technological progress at the scenario level is bound to be reflected in all instances where technology plays a role. In other words: rapid technological growth assumptions behind high economic growth rates imply that technologies in specific sectors (energy, agriculture) will also improve relatively quickly. Across and within sectors the directions of technological change may differ, however. For example, renewable energy technologies may improve much more rapidly than fossil fuel based technology, an uncertain factor. | ||
In the energy sector, see section 4.1, the improvement in technologies over time is largely governed by an endogenous mechanism that links technology cost to the cumulative installed capacity: learning-by-doing. In agriculture technological factors are estimated exogenously, based on historical data and published projections of crop and livestock productivity, water and fertilizer use efficiency, irrigation systems performance, etc. | In the energy sector, see section 4.1, the improvement in technologies over time is largely governed by an endogenous mechanism that links technology cost to the cumulative installed capacity: learning-by-doing. In agriculture technological factors are estimated exogenously, based on historical data and published projections of crop and livestock productivity, water and fertilizer use efficiency, irrigation systems performance, etc. | ||
< | <h3>Policy and governance</h3> | ||
At the scenario level it can make a big difference if –implicit or explicit- policies are assumed that reflect alternative directions that shape future development of human and natural systems. And it matters also how governance structures and institutional settings are assumed to evolve. Overall policy thinking can vary in many ways, but in the context of IMAGE important scenario bifurcations include more focus on the shorter term and/or on material wealth, versus longer term sustainability concerns. But also inter-regional and/or intergenerational equity may gain more or less weight as underlying future trend. As mentioned under culture and lifestyle, such assumed overall policy directions have the potential to influence pretty much all relevant scenario drivers, and model drivers alike. | At the scenario level it can make a big difference if –implicit or explicit- policies are assumed that reflect alternative directions that shape future development of human and natural systems. And it matters also how governance structures and institutional settings are assumed to evolve. Overall policy thinking can vary in many ways, but in the context of IMAGE important scenario bifurcations include more focus on the shorter term and/or on material wealth, versus longer term sustainability concerns. But also inter-regional and/or intergenerational equity may gain more or less weight as underlying future trend. As mentioned under culture and lifestyle, such assumed overall policy directions have the potential to influence pretty much all relevant scenario drivers, and model drivers alike. | ||
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Vuuren, D.P.v. et al., 2012. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change | Vuuren, D.P.v. et al., 2012. A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change | ||
Pages 21–35, Volume 22(Issue 1),http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.002. | Pages 21–35, Volume 22(Issue 1),http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.08.002. | ||
Westhoek, H. et al., 2011. The Protein Puzzle PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven | Westhoek, H. et al., 2011. The Protein Puzzle PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven | ||
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Revision as of 15:20, 30 July 2013
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