Energy supply: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentTemplate2
{{ComponentTemplate2
|Application=Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project;
|Application=Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project; ADVANCE project;
|IMAGEComponent=Scenario drivers; Land cover and use; Crop and grass; Emissions; Climate policy; Atmospheric composition and climate; Energy demand; Energy conversion; Energy supply and demand;
|IMAGEComponent=Drivers; Land cover and land use; Crops and grass; Climate policy; Atmospheric composition and climate;
|KeyReference=De Vries et al., 2007; Van Vuuren et al., 2008; Van Vuuren et al., 2009;
|KeyReference=De Vries et al., 2007; Van Vuuren et al., 2008; Van Vuuren et al., 2009;
|InputVar=Technology development of energy supply; Energy resources; Trade restriction; Demand for primary energy; Land for bioenergy; Potential bioenergy yield - grid;  
|InputVar=Technology development of energy supply; Energy resources; Trade restriction; Demand for primary energy; Potential bioenergy yield - grid; Land supply for bioenergy - grid; Learning rate;
|OutputVar=Primary energy price; Carbon storage cost; Bioenergy crops production; Energy security indicators; Total primary energy supply; Marginal abatement cost;
|Parameter=Initial production costs;
|Parameter=Initial production costs of energy supply technologies
|OutputVar=Primary energy price; Carbon storage price; Energy security indicators; Total primary energy supply; Marginal abatement cost; Energy and industry activity level; Bioenergy production;
|Description=The supply of different energy resources obviously forms a key component of the energy system. On the one hand, supply is constrained on an annual (for renewables) or cumulative (for fossil and nuclear) basis. In addition, resources are unevenly spread across world regions and often poorly matched with regional energy requirements. It relates directly to the notion of energy security, but also determines to a large extent the many environmental impacts of the energy system. The IMAGE energy model [[TIMER model|TIMER]] concentrates on long-term dynamics, not on short term market conditions. For all primary energy carriers, costs are based in the long run on the interplay between resource depletion (upward pressure on prices) and technology development (downward pressure on prices). In the model, technology development is introduced for most fuels and renewable options as learning curves: costs decrease endogenously as a function of cumulative capacity in place in some cases exogenous technology change assumptions are made. Depletion is a function of either cumulative production, as for fossil fuel resources and nuclear feedstocks, or of annual production as for renewables.
 
 
==Links to other parts of the model==
The supply of energy is assumed to be a function of total demand in the sense that all demand is always met. Because regions can usually not supply all demand, energy carriers such as coal, oil and gas are widely traded. The supply model influences developments in the demand and conversion models via prices: primary fuel prices influence investment decisions in end-use and energy conversion. Linkages to other parts of IMAGE are the available land for bio-energy production and the emissions of greenhouse gas and air pollutants (partly related to supply) and the use of land for bio-energy production (no account is made for land use for other energy forms). Several key assumptions determine the long-term behavior of the various energy supply submodels. There are mostly related to technology development and the resource base. The various links are indicated in the table below.
|ComponentCode=ES
|ComponentCode=ES
|AggregatedComponent=Energy supply and demand
|AggregatedComponent=Energy supply and demand
|FrameworkElementType=pressure component
|FrameworkElementType=pressure component
}}
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The energy supply model simulates long-term trends in energy supply. This model describes the investments in, and the use of, different types of energy carriers by technology development and resource depletion. Technological development is implemented in form of learning curves for most fuels and renewable energy options. Costs decrease endogenously as a function of the cumulative energy capacity. On the other hand, resource costs increase as they get depleted which is based on cost-supply curves.
Energy supply is assumed to always meet energy demand. In order to do so, not only domestic resources can be used, but energy carriers, such as coal, oil and gas, can also be traded. The impact of depletion and technology development lead to changes in primary fuel prices, which influence investment decisions in the end-use and energy-conversion modules. Linkages to other parts of IMAGE framework include available land for bio-energy production and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants.
{{InputOutputParameterTemplate}}
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Latest revision as of 10:19, 21 October 2021

TIMER model, energy supply module
Flowchart Energy supply. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

Key policy issues

  • How can energy resources be exploited to meet future primary energy demand?
  • How can energy supply and demand be balanced between world regions, and how will this effect security of supply?
  • How rapidly can the transition to more sustainable energy supply be made?

Introduction

The energy supply model simulates long-term trends in energy supply. This model describes the investments in, and the use of, different types of energy carriers by technology development and resource depletion. Technological development is implemented in form of learning curves for most fuels and renewable energy options. Costs decrease endogenously as a function of the cumulative energy capacity. On the other hand, resource costs increase as they get depleted which is based on cost-supply curves.

Energy supply is assumed to always meet energy demand. In order to do so, not only domestic resources can be used, but energy carriers, such as coal, oil and gas, can also be traded. The impact of depletion and technology development lead to changes in primary fuel prices, which influence investment decisions in the end-use and energy-conversion modules. Linkages to other parts of IMAGE framework include available land for bio-energy production and emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants.

Input/Output Table

Input Energy supply component

IMAGE model drivers and variablesDescriptionSource
Technology development of energy supply Learning curves and exogenous learning that determine technology development. Drivers
Learning rate Determines the rate of technology development in learning equations. Drivers
Energy resources Volume of energy resource per carrier, region and supply cost class (determines depletion dynamics). Drivers
Trade restriction Trade tariffs and barriers limiting trade in energy carriers (in energy submodel). Drivers
Demand for primary energy Total demand for energy production. Sum of final energy demand and energy inputs into energy conversion processes. Energy conversion
Potential bioenergy yield - grid Potential yields of bioenergy crops. Crops and grass
Land supply for bioenergy - grid Land available for sustainable bioenergy production (abandoned agricultural land and non-forested land). Land cover and land use
External datasetsDescriptionSource
Initial production costs The costs of energy conversion technologies at the start of the simulation. Various sources

Output Energy supply component

IMAGE model variablesDescriptionUse
Marginal abatement cost Cost of an additional unit of pollution abated (CO2eq). A marginal abatement cost curve (MAC curve) is a set of options available to an economy to reduce pollution, ranked from the lowest to highest additional costs.
Bioenergy production Total bioenergy production.
Energy and industry activity level Activity levels in the energy and industrial sector, per process and energy carrier, for example, the combustion of petrol for transport or the production of crude oil.
Primary energy price The price of primary energy carriers based on production costs.
Carbon storage price The costs of capturing and storing CO2, affecting the use of CCS technology.
Energy security indicators Indicators on the status of energy security, such as energy self-sufficiency. Final output
Total primary energy supply Total primary energy supply. Final output