Atmospheric composition and climate/Policy issues: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate
|Reference=Overmars et al. (unpublished); Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013; Shindell et al., 2012;
|Description=Baseline developments: In baseline scenarios, emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations increase substantially.  The increase in emissions depends on socio-economic factors, such as population growth, economic growth, technology development and lifestyle. Most medium baseline scenarios in IMAGE result in a rise in global mean temperature of about 3 to 5 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (see figure below).
|Example=Policy interventions that affect future climate range from policy on energy and agricultural systems, air pollution measures, and land-use policies to direct management of radiative forcing. For instance, the IMAGE system can be used to analyse energy efficiency, use of low-carbon fuels, reduction in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and reduction of deforestation ([[Overmars et al. (unpublished)]]). Interventions related to policies on climate, air pollution and land use are described in [[Climate policy]], [[Air pollution and energy policies]] and [[Land and biodiversity policies]]. These measures lead to a change in emissions, and then to the expected reduction in radiative forcing and climate change.


|Reference=Overmars et al. (unpublished); Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013; Shindell et al., 2012;
The slow temporal dynamics of the climate system play an important role in climate policy assessments. IMAGE calculations show considerable time lag between policy introduction and impacts on climate change. Even if emissions were substantially reduced from 2020 and onwards, several decades would elapse before reduction in temperature in the global climate system is observed (see figure below). In addition to these standard climate measures, a range of policy interventions may play a role in the temporal dynamics of the climate system, and may be analysed using the IMAGE system:
|Description=In baseline scenarios, emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations increase strongly. The increase in emission level depends on many socio-economic factors, such as population growth, economic growth, technology development and lifestyle. Most medium IMAGE baseline scenarios typically result in a global mean temperature rise of about three to five degrees above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (see figure below).
* Mitigation in short-lived versus long-lived greenhouse gases, and co-benefits with air pollution measures ([[Shindell et al., 2012]]). By reducing black carbon emissions and ozone precursors, short-term benefits in air quality and climate mitigation may be achieved.
*Non-mitigation management of global radiative forcing; for example, via geo-engineering ([[Figure 6.3.3.**]]) ([[Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013]]).
|Example=Policy interventions that affect future climate range from deliberate climate policy on energy and agricultural systems, air pollution measures, and many land-use policies to direct management of radiative forcing. Examples of the type of measures that can be analysed using the IMAGE system include energy efficiency, use of low-carbon fuels, reduction in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and reduction of deforestation ([[Overmars et al. (unpublished)]]).  The interventions that are related to policies on climate, air pollution and land use are described in [[Climate policy]], [[Air pollution and energy policies]] and  [[Land and biodiversity policies]]. These measures lead to a change in emissions, and then to the expected reduction in radiative forcing and climate change. The IMAGE calculations show that there is a considerable time lag between the moment policies are introduced and the subsequent impacts on climate change. Even if emissions are strongly reduced already by 2020 and onwards, it would take several decades for this change to result in a noticeable reduction in temperature within the global climate system (see figure below). In addition to these ‘standard’ climate measures, there is a range of policy interventions whereby the dynamics of the climate system play a prominent role. All of these, in principle, may be analysed using the IMAGE system
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Revision as of 16:48, 10 February 2014

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Atmospheric composition and climate/Policy issues

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Key publications
References
Atmospheric composition and climate model (based on MAGICC 6.0) in IMAGE 3.0
Flowchart Atmospheric composition and climate. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
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