Air pollution and energy policies/Policy issues

Component is implemented in:

Related IMAGE components

Climate policy Land and biodiversity policies

Projects/Applications

Roads from Rio+20 (2012) project

Key publications

Kruyt et al., 2009 Van Ruijven et al., 2012

References

Jewell et al., 2016 Kruyt et al., 2009 PBL, 2012 Van Ruijven et al., 2008

Energy security

Baseline developments

While the concept of energy security is widely used, there is no consensus on its interpretation. Some focus on one aspect of energy security, such as resource estimates, reserve-to-production ratios, diversity indices and, import dependence, while others attempt to capture several elements in a single aggregated index.

On the basis of IMAGE results, a wide set of indicators can be calculated to make a broad assessment of changes (Kruyt et al., 2009). IMAGE results show that in baseline scenarios without additional policy, depletion of known fossil resources accelerates as a result of increasing global demand. Oil production is projected to become increasingly concentrated in fewer producing countries in the 2010–2030 period. After 2030/2050 the market will diversify with production of unconventional sources from other regions. For natural gas and certainly for coal, depletion dynamics are less observable in IMAGE results.

Policy interventions

IMAGE is used to explore policies to improve energy security, particularly import restrictions, fuel preferences and import taxes. The model is used to project the consequences of climate policy on energy security, and in fact scenarios show that climate policy has co-benefits that improve energy security. Possible benefits include reduced international trade, increased fuel diversity and slower depletion of fossil resources (PBL, 2012). Analysis shows that import restrictions have a temporary impact on energy security, leading to faster depletion of domestic resources, thus reducing long-term energy security (Kruyt et al., 2009).

Table: Policy interventions Energy security

Policy intervention	Description	Implemented in/affected component
Restrictions on fuel trade	As part of energy security policies, fuel trade between different regions can be blocked.	Energy conversion Energy supply(*)

(*) Implementing component.

Energy access

Baseline developments

IMAGE can also be used to consider energy access issues. The baseline scenario of the Rio+20 report shows that without additional policy by 2030, 2.6 billion people will continue to depend on solid fuels for cooking and heating and 1 billion people will have no access to electricity (PBL, 2012). Low energy access has been reported to lead to development issues and to environmental issues.

Policy interventions

The model defines access to modern energy sources for cooking and heating by either using modern fuels or improved biomass stoves. To make the transition, the IMAGE analysis include measures such as increased investments in the power grid (for access to electricity), fuel subsidies and grants, and micro-lending facilities for easier access to credit and lower borrowing costs for households (Van Ruijven, 2008) . For households for which the shift from biomass may still be out of reach under the induced financial policies, improved biomass stoves are distributed as a cost-effective interim solution. The Roads from Rio+20 report (PBL, 2012), for instance, explored measures, such as subsidies and grid extension, to achieve 95 % grid connectivity and use of modern fuels for cooking and heating in 2030.

Table: Policy interventions Energy access

Policy intervention	Description	Implemented in/affected component
Provision on improved stoves for traditional bio-energy	Increases the efficiency of bio-energy use.	Energy demand(*) Human development
Subsidies on modern energy	Reduces the costs of modern energy to reduce traditional energy use (can be targeted to low income groups).	Energy demand(*) Human development

(*) Implementing component.

Air pollution

Baseline developments

Indoor and outdoor air pollution which have negative health impacts are key issues for energy policies. IMAGE is used to explore air pollution policies, particularly in relation to climate policy. In the baseline scenario of the Rio+20 project, for instance, emissions of air pollutants remain at high levels globally (PBL, 2012). Black carbon emissions are projected to decrease towards 2050, while SO2 emissions remain constant and NOx emissions increase. Another key factor is the ageing population because the impacts of air pollution are felt especially by the elderly.

Policy intervention

Emissions of air pollutants may be reduced by either a change in energy use or end-of-pipe abatement measures. In IMAGE, the first policy category can be modelled explicitly, for instance, as a result of climate policy. Many technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions also lead to less emissions of air pollutants. End-of-pipe policies can only be implemented by changing the emission factors (in an aggregated way). However, by relating improvement rates to those of more explicit models, it is still possible to perform policy relevant experiments.

Table: Policy interventions Air pollution

Policy intervention	Description	Implemented in/affected component
Implementation of sustainability criteria in bio-energy production	Sustainability criteria that could become binding for dedicated bio-energy production, such as the restrictive use of water-scarce or degraded areas.	Emissions Energy supply(*) Terrestrial biodiversity
Carbon tax	A tax on carbon leads to higher prices for carbon intensive fuels (such as fossil fuels), making low-carbon alternatives more attractive.	Climate policy(*) Emissions Energy conversion(*) Energy demand(*) Energy supply Human development

(*) Implementing component.

Air pollution and energy access

Table: Policy interventions Air pollution and energy access

Policy intervention	Description	Implemented in/affected component
Apply emission and energy intensity standards	Apply emission intensity standards for e.g. cars (gCO2/km), power plants (gCO2/kWh) or appliances (kWh/hour).	Emissions
Capacity targets	It is possible to prescribe the shares of renewables, CCS technology, nuclear power and other forms of generation capacity. This measure influences the amount of capacity installed of the technology chosen.	Emissions Energy conversion(*)
Change market shares of fuel types	Exogenously set the market shares of certain fuel types. This can be done for specific analyses or scenarios to explore the broader implications of increasing the use of, for instance, biofuels, electricity or hydrogen and reflects the impact of fuel targets.	Emissions Energy conversion Energy demand(*) Energy supply
Change the use of electricity and hydrogen	It is possible to promote the use of electricity and hydrogen at the end-use level.	Emissions Energy conversion(*) Energy demand
Excluding certain technologies	Certain energy technology options can be excluded in the model for environmental, societal, and/or security reasons.	Emissions Energy conversion(*)
Implementation of biofuel targets	Policies to enhance the use of biofuels, especially in the transport sector. In the Agricultural economy component only 'first generation' crops are taken into account. The policy is implemented as a budget-neutral policy from government perspective, e.g. a subsidy is implemented to achieve a certain share of biofuels in fuel production and an end-user tax is applied to counterfinance the implemented subsidy.	Agricultural economy(*) Emissions Energy supply Land-use allocation Terrestrial biodiversity
Improving energy efficiency	Exogenously set improvement in efficiency. Such improvements can be introduced for the submodels that focus on particular technologies, for example, in transport, heavy industry and households submodels.	Emissions Energy conversion Energy demand(*) Energy supply
Production targets for energy technologies	Production targets for energy technologies can be set to force technologies through a learning curve.	Energy conversion

(*) Implementing component.

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