Atmospheric composition and climate/Policy issues: Difference between revisions
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{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate | {{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate | ||
|Status=On hold | |Status=On hold | ||
|Reference=Overmars et al. (unpublished); Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013; Shindell et al., 2012; | |Reference=Overmars et al. (unpublished); Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013; Shindell et al., 2012; | ||
|Description=In baseline scenarios, emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations increase strongly. The increase in emission level depends on many socio-economic factors, such as population growth, economic growth, technology development and lifestyle. Most medium IMAGE baseline scenarios typically result in a global mean temperature rise of about three to five degrees above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (see figure below). | |Description=In baseline scenarios, emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations increase strongly. The increase in emission level depends on many socio-economic factors, such as population growth, economic growth, technology development and lifestyle. Most medium IMAGE baseline scenarios typically result in a global mean temperature rise of about three to five degrees above pre-industrial levels by 2100 (see figure below). | ||
* Mitigation in short-lived versus long-lived greenhouse gases, and co-benefits with air pollution measures ([[Shindell et al., 2012]]). By reducing black carbon emissions and ozone precursors, short-term benefits in air quality and climate mitigation may be achieved. | * Mitigation in short-lived versus long-lived greenhouse gases, and co-benefits with air pollution measures ([[Shindell et al., 2012]]). By reducing black carbon emissions and ozone precursors, short-term benefits in air quality and climate mitigation may be achieved. | ||
*Non-mitigation management of global radiative forcing; for example, via geo-engineering (Figure 6.3.3.) ([[Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013]]). | *Non-mitigation management of global radiative forcing; for example, via geo-engineering ([[Figure 6.3.3.**]]) ([[Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013]]). | ||
|Example=Policy interventions that affect future climate range from deliberate climate policy on energy and agricultural systems, air pollution measures, and many land-use policies to direct management of radiative forcing. Examples of the type of measures that can be analysed using the IMAGE system include energy efficiency, use of low-carbon fuels, reduction in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and reduction of deforestation ([[Overmars et al. (unpublished)]]). The interventions that are related to policies on climate, air pollution and land use are described in [[Climate policy]], [[Air pollution and energy policies]] and [[Land and biodiversity policies]]. These measures lead to a change in emissions, and then to the expected reduction in radiative forcing and climate change. The IMAGE calculations show that there is a considerable time lag between the moment policies are introduced and the subsequent impacts on climate change. Even if emissions are strongly reduced already by 2020 and onwards, it would take several decades for this change to result in a noticeable reduction in temperature within the global climate system (see figure below). In addition to these ‘standard’ climate measures, there is a range of policy interventions whereby the dynamics of the climate system play a prominent role. All of these, in principle, may be analysed using the IMAGE system | |Example=Policy interventions that affect future climate range from deliberate climate policy on energy and agricultural systems, air pollution measures, and many land-use policies to direct management of radiative forcing. Examples of the type of measures that can be analysed using the IMAGE system include energy efficiency, use of low-carbon fuels, reduction in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions and reduction of deforestation ([[Overmars et al. (unpublished)]]). The interventions that are related to policies on climate, air pollution and land use are described in [[Climate policy]], [[Air pollution and energy policies]] and [[Land and biodiversity policies]]. These measures lead to a change in emissions, and then to the expected reduction in radiative forcing and climate change. The IMAGE calculations show that there is a considerable time lag between the moment policies are introduced and the subsequent impacts on climate change. Even if emissions are strongly reduced already by 2020 and onwards, it would take several decades for this change to result in a noticeable reduction in temperature within the global climate system (see figure below). In addition to these ‘standard’ climate measures, there is a range of policy interventions whereby the dynamics of the climate system play a prominent role. All of these, in principle, may be analysed using the IMAGE system | ||
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Revision as of 17:31, 16 December 2013
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