Atmospheric composition and climate: Difference between revisions
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|Status=On hold | |Status=On hold | ||
|IMAGEComponent=Crop and grass; Natural vegetation and carbon cycle; Emissions; Climate policy; Air pollution and energy policies; Land and biodiversity policies; Nutrient balances; Hydrological cycle; Human development; | |IMAGEComponent=Crop and grass; Natural vegetation and carbon cycle; Emissions; Climate policy; Air pollution and energy policies; Land and biodiversity policies; Nutrient balances; Hydrological cycle; Human development; | ||
|ExternalModel=LPJml model; | |ExternalModel=LPJml model; MAGICC model; | ||
|KeyReference=Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013; Meinshausen et al., 2011a; Meinshausen et al., 2011b; Müller et al., a (unpublished); Van Vuuren et al., 2011; | |KeyReference=Van Vuuren and Stehfest, 2013; Meinshausen et al., 2011a; Meinshausen et al., 2011b; Müller et al., a (unpublished); Van Vuuren et al., 2011; | ||
|Reference=IPCC, 2007a; | |Reference=IPCC, 2007a; | ||
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|Parameter=Climate change patterns; MAGICC parameter settings; Sulphate patterns; Radiative forcing factors; | |Parameter=Climate change patterns; MAGICC parameter settings; Sulphate patterns; Radiative forcing factors; | ||
|Description=Climate change is generally considered among the most serious of human interferences in the environment. Emissions from fossil fuels, industry, land use and land-use change have increased greenhouse gas ([[HasAcronym::GHG]]) concentrations and caused the global mean temperature to be almost 1 oC above pre-industrial levels ([[IPCC, 2007a]]) . The impacts of climate change are already visible today and are expected to become much stronger during this century and beyond, if no action is taken and if global mean temperature could increase by 4 to 6 °C ([[IPCC, 2007a]]). Climate change impacts manifest themselves in all world regions, and practically affect all aspects of human activity. | |Description=Climate change is generally considered among the most serious of human interferences in the environment. Emissions from fossil fuels, industry, land use and land-use change have increased greenhouse gas ([[HasAcronym::GHG]]) concentrations and caused the global mean temperature to be almost 1 oC above pre-industrial levels ([[IPCC, 2007a]]) . The impacts of climate change are already visible today and are expected to become much stronger during this century and beyond, if no action is taken and if global mean temperature could increase by 4 to 6 °C ([[IPCC, 2007a]]). Climate change impacts manifest themselves in all world regions, and practically affect all aspects of human activity. | ||
Therefore, the modelling of climate change (i.e. changes in temperature and precipitation), is central in global integrated assessments to study baseline developments of climate change as well as policy options. In IMAGE, we use the simple climate model MAGICC ([[Meinshausen et al., 2011a]]; [[Meinshausen et al., 2011b]]) to simulate the effect of changing greenhouse gas emissions on atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and global mean temperature change. | Therefore, the modelling of climate change (i.e. changes in temperature and precipitation), is central in global integrated assessments to study baseline developments of climate change as well as policy options. In IMAGE, we use the simple climate model [[MAGICC model|MAGICC]] ([[Meinshausen et al., 2011a]]; [[Meinshausen et al., 2011b]]) to simulate the effect of changing greenhouse gas emissions on atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and global mean temperature change. MAGICC was used extensively in the Third and Fourth Assessment Reports of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for assessing a range of greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios. Since the publication of these reports, MAGICC has been updated to be in line with the most recent results from Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models ([[HasAcronym::AOGCM]]). | ||
The uncertainty in climate change simulations remains substantial, as illustrated by differences between the results from various Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), in terms of global mean temperature, but even much more so in geographical patterns of surface temperature and precipitation. MAGICC has been designed to reproduce time-dependent responses of AOGCMs by adjusting the values of a limited number of model parameters ([[Meinshausen et al., 2011a]]; [[Meinshausen et al., 2011b]]). This allows IMAGE to also reflect the uncertainty in the AOGCM results, and to provide plausible projections of future climate-change feedbacks and impacts. | The uncertainty in climate change simulations remains substantial, as illustrated by differences between the results from various Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), in terms of global mean temperature, but even much more so in geographical patterns of surface temperature and precipitation. MAGICC has been designed to reproduce time-dependent responses of AOGCMs by adjusting the values of a limited number of model parameters ([[Meinshausen et al., 2011a]]; [[Meinshausen et al., 2011b]]). This allows IMAGE to also reflect the uncertainty in the AOGCM results, and to provide plausible projections of future climate-change feedbacks and impacts. | ||
For both impacts and feedbacks, not global mean temperature change, but location-specific temperature and precipitation changes are relevant. Therefore, a pattern scaling technique is applied in IMAGE by combining MAGICC results with maps on climate change from the same AOGCMs as were assessed in [[HasAcronym::AR|AR4]] ([[IPCC, 2007a]]) and used for calibrating MAGICC. The consistent combination of AOGCM-specific parameter settings for MAGICC and matching geographical patterns of climate change make the dynamic results from IMAGE physically more consistent, and extend the range of uncertainties that can be covered to include future climate change. | For both impacts and feedbacks, not global mean temperature change, but location-specific temperature and precipitation changes are relevant. Therefore, a pattern scaling technique is applied in IMAGE by combining MAGICC results with maps on climate change from the same AOGCMs as were assessed in [[HasAcronym::AR|AR4]] ([[IPCC, 2007a]]) and used for calibrating MAGICC. The consistent combination of AOGCM-specific parameter settings for MAGICC and matching geographical patterns of climate change make the dynamic results from IMAGE physically more consistent, and extend the range of uncertainties that can be covered to include future climate change. | ||
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Revision as of 17:38, 16 December 2013
Parts of Atmospheric composition and climate
| Component is implemented in: |
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| Related IMAGE components |
| Projects/Applications |
| Models/Databases |
| Key publications |
| References |
Key policy issues
- What would be the impact of global climate change in this century without additional mitigation policies and measures?
- To what extent would the various scenarios to significantly reduce net greenhouse gas emissions lead to a reduction in climate change?
- To what extent does the uncertainty of geographical patterns in temperature and precipitation change influence future climate impacts and response strategies?