Energy conversion/Description: Difference between revisions
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|Description=[[TIMER model|TIMER]] includes two main energy conversion modules: Electric power generation and hydrogen generation. Below, electric power generation is described in detail. In addition, the key characteristics of the hydrogen generation model, which follows a similar structure, are presented. | |Description=[[TIMER model|TIMER]] includes two main energy conversion modules: Electric power generation and hydrogen generation. Below, electric power generation is described in detail. In addition, the key characteristics of the hydrogen generation model, which follows a similar structure, are presented. | ||
==Electric power generation== | ===Electric power generation=== | ||
As shown in the flowchart, two key elements of the electric power generation are the investment strategy and the operational strategy in the sector. A challenge in simulating electricity production in an aggregated model is that in reality electricity production depends on a range of complex factors, related to costs, reliance, and the time required to switch on technologies. Modelling these factors requires a high level of detail and thus {{AbbrTemplate|IAM}}s) such as [[TIMER model|TIMER]] concentrate on introducing a set of simplified, meta relationships ([[Hoogwijk, 2004]]; [[Van Vuuren, 2007]]). | As shown in the flowchart, two key elements of the electric power generation are the investment strategy and the operational strategy in the sector. A challenge in simulating electricity production in an aggregated model is that in reality electricity production depends on a range of complex factors, related to costs, reliance, and the time required to switch on technologies. Modelling these factors requires a high level of detail and thus {{AbbrTemplate|IAM}}s) such as [[TIMER model|TIMER]] concentrate on introducing a set of simplified, meta relationships ([[Hoogwijk, 2004]]; [[Van Vuuren, 2007]]). | ||
===Total demand for new capacity=== | ====Total demand for new capacity==== | ||
The electricity capacity required to meet the demand per region is based on a forecast of the maximum electricity demand plus a reserve margin of about 10% (including the capacity credit assigned to different forms of electricity generation). Maximum demand is calculated on the basis of an assumed monthly shape of the load duration curve (LDC) and the gross electricity demand. The latter comprises the net electricity demand from the end-use sectors plus electricity trade and transmission losses ({{AbbrTemplate|LDC}}) accounts for characteristics such as cooling and lighting demand). The demand for new generation capacity is the difference between the required and existing capacity. Power plants are assumed to be replaced at the end of their lifetime, which varies from 30 to 50 years, depending on the technology and is currently fixed in the model. | The electricity capacity required to meet the demand per region is based on a forecast of the maximum electricity demand plus a reserve margin of about 10% (including the capacity credit assigned to different forms of electricity generation). Maximum demand is calculated on the basis of an assumed monthly shape of the load duration curve (LDC) and the gross electricity demand. The latter comprises the net electricity demand from the end-use sectors plus electricity trade and transmission losses ({{AbbrTemplate|LDC}}) accounts for characteristics such as cooling and lighting demand). The demand for new generation capacity is the difference between the required and existing capacity. Power plants are assumed to be replaced at the end of their lifetime, which varies from 30 to 50 years, depending on the technology and is currently fixed in the model. | ||
===Decisions to invest in specific options === | ====Decisions to invest in specific options ==== | ||
In the following step, a decision is made to invest in different generation technologies. In the model, this is done on the basis of the price of electricity (in USD/kWhe) produced per technology, using a multinomial logit equation that assigns larger market shares to the lower cost options. The specific costs of each option is broken down into a number of categories: investment or capital costs (USD/kWe), fuel costs (USD/GJ), operational and maintenance costs (OM) and other costs (see further). An exception is hydropower capacity, which is exogenously prescribed, because large hydropower plants often have functions other than only electricity production (e.g. water supply and flood control). In the equations, some constraints are added to account for limitations in supply (e.g. restrictions on biomass availability). The investments needed for each option are given in the form of total investment in new generation capacity and the share of each individual technology (determined on the basis of price and preference). | In the following step, a decision is made to invest in different generation technologies. In the model, this is done on the basis of the price of electricity (in {{AbbrTemplate|USD}}/{{AbbrTemplate|kWhe}}) produced per technology, using a multinomial logit equation that assigns larger market shares to the lower cost options. The specific costs of each option is broken down into a number of categories: investment or capital costs (USD/kWe), fuel costs (USD/GJ), operational and maintenance costs (OM) and other costs (see further). An exception is hydropower capacity, which is exogenously prescribed, because large hydropower plants often have functions other than only electricity production (e.g. water supply and flood control). In the equations, some constraints are added to account for limitations in supply (e.g. restrictions on biomass availability). The investments needed for each option are given in the form of total investment in new generation capacity and the share of each individual technology (determined on the basis of price and preference). | ||
===Operational strategy=== | ====Operational strategy==== | ||
Use of power plants is based on operational costs, with low-cost technologies assumed to be used most often. This implies that capital-intensive plants with low operational costs, such as renewable and nuclear energy, operate as many hours as possible. To some degree, this is also true for other plants with low operational costs, such as coal. | Use of power plants is based on operational costs, with low-cost technologies assumed to be used most often. This implies that capital-intensive plants with low operational costs, such as renewable and nuclear energy, operate as many hours as possible. To some degree, this is also true for other plants with low operational costs, such as coal. | ||
The operational decision is presented in the following three steps: | The operational decision is presented in the following three steps: | ||
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#Base load (period of medium to low energy demand) is assigned on the basis of the remaining capacity (after steps 1 and 2), operational costs and the ability of options to provide the base load capacity. | #Base load (period of medium to low energy demand) is assigned on the basis of the remaining capacity (after steps 1 and 2), operational costs and the ability of options to provide the base load capacity. | ||
====Fossil-fuel and bio-energy power plants==== | |||
===Fossil-fuel and bio-energy power plants=== | A total of 20 types of power plants generating electricity using fossil fuels and bioenergy are included. These power plants represent different combinations of conventional technology, such as gasification and combined cycle (CC) technology; combined heat and power (CHP); and carbon capture and storage ({{AbbrTemplate|CCS}};[[Hendriks et al., 2004b|(2004b)]]). The specific capital costs and thermal efficiencies of these types of plants are determined by exogenous assumptions that describe the technological progress of typical components of these plants: | ||
A total of 20 types of power plants generating electricity using fossil fuels and bioenergy are included. These power plants represent different combinations of conventional technology, such as gasification and combined cycle (CC) technology; combined heat and power (CHP); and carbon capture and storage (CCS; | |||
*For conventional power plants, the coal-fired plant is defined in terms of overall efficiency and investment cost. The characteristics of all other conventional plants (using oil, natural gas or bioenergy) are described in the investment differences for desulphurisation, fuel handling and efficiency. | *For conventional power plants, the coal-fired plant is defined in terms of overall efficiency and investment cost. The characteristics of all other conventional plants (using oil, natural gas or bioenergy) are described in the investment differences for desulphurisation, fuel handling and efficiency. | ||
*For Combined Cycle (CC) power plants, the characteristics of a natural gas fired plant are set as the standard. Other CC plants (fuelled by oil, bioenergy and coal after gasification) are defined by indicating additional capital costs for gasification, efficiency losses due to gasification, and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for fuel handling. | *For Combined Cycle (CC) power plants, the characteristics of a natural gas fired plant are set as the standard. Other CC plants (fuelled by oil, bioenergy and coal after gasification) are defined by indicating additional capital costs for gasification, efficiency losses due to gasification, and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for fuel handling. | ||
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==Hydrogen generation model== | ==Hydrogen generation model== | ||
The structure of the hydrogen generation submodule is similar to that for electric power generation ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2007]]) but with following differences: | The structure of the hydrogen generation submodule is similar to that for electric power generation ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2007]]) but with following differences: | ||
#There are only eleven supply options for hydrogen production: | |||
#* coal, oil, natural gas and bioenergy, with and without carbon capture and storage (8 plants); | |||
#* hydrogen production from electrolysis, direct hydrogen production from solar thermal processes; | |||
#* small methane reform plants. | |||
#No description of preferences for different power plants is taken into account in the operational strategy. The load factor for each option equals the total production divided by the capacity for each region. | |||
#Intermittence does not play an important role because hydrogen can be stored to some degree. Thus, there are no equations simulating system integration. | |||
#Hydrogen can be traded. A trade model is added, similar to those for fossil fuels described in [[Energy supply]]. | |||
}} | }} | ||
Revision as of 12:00, 22 May 2014
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