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| BelongsToComponent | HasAltTitle | HasCaption | HasFigureType | HasPageName | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline figure Agricultural economy | Agricultural economy | Global agricultural production and areas per region | Food availability measured in kcal per capita per day available for consumption, for initial situation (2010) and for the SSP scenarios (2100), globally and by region. (van Meijl et al., 2020b) | Baseline figure | File:Ercab7abaf2 hr.jpg |
| Policy intervention figure Agricultural economy | Agricultural economy | (a) Land use in 2010. Land-use change in (b) 2010–2050 and (c) 2010–2100 for the scenarios with afforestation (Doelman et al., 2020) | Policy intervention figure | File:Gcb14887-fig-0006-m.jpg | |
| Policy intervention figure Land cover and land use | Agriculture and land use | Global food production and land use under the baseline scenario | Changes in agricultural production and land use | Policy intervention figure | File:011x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Air pollution and energy policies | Air pollution and energy policies | Global household access to modern fuels for cooking and heating under a baseline scenario | A few key indicators show the trends for energy security, access, air pollution under a baseline scenario. | Baseline figure | File:129x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Air pollution and energy policies | Air pollution and energy policies | Global energy trade under the baseline and sustainability scenarios, 2050 | Compared to the baseline, energy trade is significantly reduced under the sustainability scenarios (PBL, 2012). | Policy intervention figure | File:132g img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Aquatic biodiversity | Aquatic biodiversity | Avoided aquatic biodiversity loss compared to the baseline, under a combination of policy options | A set of ambitious policy options could reduce aquatic biodiversity loss compared to a baseline scenario. | Policy intervention figure | File:170k img13.png |
| Baseline figure Aquatic biodiversity | Aquatic biodiversity | Aquatic Mean Species Abundance under a baseline scenario | In a baseline scenario, aquatic biodiversity is projected to decrease further. | Baseline figure | File:102x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Atmospheric composition and climate | Atmospheric composition and climate | Radiative forcing and temperature change under baseline and policy scenarios | In addition to ‘conventional’ climate policy, there may be situations where urgent action on climate change is required, either via rapid mitigation, or via Solar Radiation Management (SRM) (e.g. sulphur emissions to the stratosphere). Radiative forcing is immediately stabilised at the intended level by SRM, and also temperatures are adjusted immediately (though not yet at the equilibrium level), and even faster under extreme SRM than would be possible through strong mitigation. However, substantial uncertainties and risks are related to such drastic manipulations of the radiation balance. | Policy intervention figure | File:096x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Atmospheric composition and climate | Atmospheric composition and climate | Greenhouse gas emissions, CO2 concentration, temperature increase and radiative forcing under baseline and climate policy scenarios | In the policy scenarios, emissions decrease strongly after 2020, while concentration levels only decrease or stabilise after 2050. Global mean temperature, due to inertia in the climate system, will not stabilise until the end of this century under the most ambitious climate policy scenario (2.6 W/m2). | Baseline figure | File:091x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Carbon cycle and natural vegetation II | Carbon cycle and natural vegetation | Change in cumulative CO2 emissions under increasing forest protection, compared to the baseline scenario, 2010-2030 | Increasingly strict REDD regimes might lead to substantial reduction in cumulative terrestrial CO2 emission (Overmars et al., 2014). | Policy intervention figure | File:600px 076g img13.png |
| Baseline figure Carbon cycle and natural vegetation | Carbon cycle and natural vegetation IMAGE framework summary/Earth system | Cumulative terrestrial carbon flux of long-term climate scenarios | Cumulative terrestrial carbon flux of long-term climate scenarios (Müller et al., 2016) | Baseline figure | File:600px 075g img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Climate policy | Climate policy | Greenhouse gas emissions, radiative forcing and costs under mitigation scenarios | Scenario results describing emission pathways representing optimal and delayed policy action (Copenhagen pledges) in 2020, in terms of CO2 emission (including land use), associated radiative forcing (including all gases and aerosol forcing), and global mitigation costs (as percentage of GDP). | Policy intervention figure | File:125x img13.png |
| 002g ind16 CP | Climate policy | Regional and global abatement costs for NDCs | Policy intervention figure | File:002g ind16.png | |
| Baseline figure Climate policy | Climate policy | Greenhouse gas emissions under baseline scenarios and pledges, for Brazil | The national projection is from the National Decree No. 7390, and the WEO 2010 projection is from the World Energy Outlook (2010) of International Energy Agency. | Baseline figure | File:122x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Crops and grass | Crops and grass | Climate change impacts on crop yields from 1981 - 2010 to 2070 - 2099 | By the end of the century climate change impacts on crop yields under the baseline could be reduced by stringent climate policy. | Policy intervention figure | File:079x2 img13.png |
| Baseline figure Crops and grass | Crops and grass | Relative change in decadal mean production according to the GGC models, with and without CO2 fertilization effect | The effect of climate change on crop yields strongly depends on the effect of CO2 fertilisation, also represented in LPJmL. Lines show means across several climate scenarios; adopted from Rosenzweig et al. (2014). | Baseline figure | File:078x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Drivers | Drivers | GDP under OECD baseline and the SSP scenarios | Projected total world GDP in the OECD environmental outlook (OECD, 2012) and in the SSP scenarios according to OECD (left), per world region in SSP2 according to OECD (middle) and according to different sources for SSP3 (right). GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is shown in purchasing power parity (ppp), SSP data from the SSP database (IIASA, 2013). | Policy intervention figure | File:143x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Drivers | Drivers | Population under the OECD baseline and SSP scenarios | The total global population is projected to peak and then decline in the coming century, except under the high-end assumptions (SSP3). By 2100, the population may range between the current and twice as many as in 2000 in the SSPs. The OECD Outlook assumes an intermediate population growth trajectory, close to the medium population SSP scenarios. | Baseline figure | File:142g img13.png |
| Baseline figure Ecosystem services | Ecosystem services | Numder of the seven ecosystem services sufficiently suppled, 2000 | Assessing how many of the 7 ecosystem services addressed in IMAGE (food, water, Carbon sequestration, erosion protection, pollination, pest control, flood protection, tourism) can be sufficiently supplied allows to identify hotspots of losses in ecosystem services. | Baseline figure | File:115k img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Ecosystem services | Ecosystem services | Assessment of sufficient supply of ecosystem services under the baseline and sustainability scenarios | While the supply of ecosystem services is decreasing under a baseline scenario, much of this decline could be avoided under a sustainability scenario (all based on PBL, 2012). | Policy intervention figure | File:116g img13.png |
| Baseline figure Emissions | Emissions | Gloval greenhouse gas emissions and temperature changes under a baseline scenario | Future greenhouse gas emissions are mostly driven by an increase in energy use, while the relative contribution of land-use related emissions is projected to decrease. | Baseline figure | File:171x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Emissions | Emissions | Global emission of NOx and SO2 per sector under baseline and policy scenarios | Climate policy has important co-benefits for air pollution. | Policy intervention figure | File:067x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Energy conversion | Energy conversion | Electricity production, per energy carrier under a baseline scenario | Increase in primary energy demand for electricity production is dominated by coal, despite a rapid growth of renewable energy. | Baseline figure | File:029g img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Energy conversion | Energy conversion | Global capacity of the power sector | The large share of conventional coal power in the baseline is replaced by fossil power with CCS and renewable capacity in the sustainability scenarios. | Policy intervention figure | File:032x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Energy demand | Energy demand | Global primary energy use under baseline and policy scenarios | The ‘envisaged policies’ scenario includes currently planned policies, the ‘global resource efficiency’ scenario assumes ambitious energy efficiency policies, and the ‘global resource efficiency and climate policy’ scenario additionally assumes policies to meet the 2 °C target. Total primary energy use could be significantly reduced by policies on energy efficiency, whereas additional climate policy would mostly affect the type of resources used. (Van den Berg et al., 2011b) | Policy intervention figure | File:024x img13.PNG |
| Baseline figure Energy demand | Energy demand | Global final energy demand under a baseline scenario | Between 2010 and 2050 energy demand for transport and industry, and for natural gas and electricity contribute most to the overall increase. | Baseline figure | File:023x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Energy supply | Energy supply | Global primary energy supply | Policy intervention figure | File:043x img13.png | |
| Baseline figure Energy supply | Energy supply | Energy production per region under a baseline scenario | Over time the share of most important energy producers for different forms of energy changes. This has implications for energy security. | Baseline figure | File:036x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Flood risks | Flood risks | Flood-related damage in Bangladesh, 30-year event, based on the historic climate (1961-1990) | Inundation depth of 30-year flood scaled down to Bangladesh (left); The estimated annual damage due to floods (not only due to a 30-year event) is more concentrated when applying the land-use method compared to the population method. | Baseline figure | File:107x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Flood risks | Flood risks | Flood related damage in Bangladesh | Future expected annual damage due to flooding depends on future climate change, but much even more on future GDP and population distribution. | Policy intervention figure | File:155x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Forest management | Forest management | Forest and forestry | Areas of managed forest are projected to increase in the coming decades; improved forest management, especially forest plantations, could limit the area required for wood production. | Baseline figure | File:054x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Forest management | Forest management | Prevented global MSA (Mean Species Abundance) loss compared to the baseline scenario, 2000 - 2050 | Improved forest management can contribute to reducing biodiversity loss (measured in MSA, see Component Terrestrial biodiversity ). | Policy intervention figure | File:056x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Human development | Human development | Child mortality under a baseline scenario, per cause, per region | Under a baseline scenario, the global under-five mortality rates will only reach the level of the Millenium Development goals by 2050. | Baseline figure | File:118x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Human development | Human development | Global under-five mortality rate under baseline and sustainability scenarios | Compared to the baseline, the sustainability scenarios ‘Global Technology’ and ‘Challenge +’ (PBL, 2012) will reduce child mortality, but the MDG target set for 2015 would still only be met after 2030. | Policy intervention figure | File:120g img13.png |
| Baseline figure Water II | IMAGE framework summary/Earth system | Regions vulnerable to crop production losses due to irrigation water shortage | Regions vulnerable to crop production losses due to shortages in irrigation water (Biemans, 2012). | Baseline figure | File:084k img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Land and biodiversity policies | Land and biodiversity policies | Change in global biodiversity per option, compared to baseline scenario | Results of several interventions in declining biodiversity loss (PBL, 2010) | Policy intervention figure | File:137x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Land and biodiversity policies II | Land and biodiversity policies | Global biodiversity under baseline and sustainability scenarios to prevent biodiversity loss | Biodiversity is projected to decline further in the baseline scenario (left). Various measures in the demand system, the production system and in land-use regulation contribute to reducing biodiversity loss in the sustainability scenarios (right). | Policy intervention figure | File:140x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Land degradation | Land degradation | Water erosion sensitivity of global land areas under baseline and sustainability scenarios | Under baseline conditions, the risk of high and very high water-induced erosion increases strongly up until 2050. Under the sustainability scenario (PBL, 2012), most of the increase under the baseline scenario is avoided by the combined effect of less land conversion and less climatic change. | Baseline figure | File:163g img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Land degradation | Land degradation | Changein main soil properties and maize yields, from undisturbed state to conditions in 2005 | As a result of soil degradation and changes in soil properties, yields are up to 30 % lower than they would have been under pristine conditions, in some parts of the world. | Policy intervention figure | File:111x img13.png |
| Baseline figure Land-use allocation | Land-use allocation | Distribution of land systems | Natural land conversion in selected SSP scenarios for the 2020-2100 period (van Vuuren et al., 2021) | Baseline figure | File:Capture.PNG |
| Policy intervention figure Land-use allocation | Land-use allocation | Carbon emissions and land use under restricted land supply, compared to the baseline scenario, 2020 | Impact of land-use change, protection and restoration policies on ecosystem functions (van Esch et al., 2021) | Policy intervention figure | File:Capture2.PNG |
| Baseline figure Livestock systems | Livestock systems | Global grass consumption under a baseline scenario | Despite a shift towards compound feed, global grass consumption in livestock systems is projected to increase (PBL, 2012). | Baseline figure | File:063g img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Livestock systems | Livestock systems | Global grassland area under baseline and sustainability scenario | Future trends in grassland areas strongly depend on grassland management and productivity (PBL, 2012). | Policy intervention figure | File:063g img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Nutrients | Nutrients | Global soil nitrogen budget under a number of policy interventions, 2050 | Several policy interventions can lead to a reduction in the global soil nitrogen budget compared to a baseline scenario (Bouwman et al., 2013c). | Policy intervention figure | File:146g img13.png |
| Baseline figure Nutrients | Nutrients | Soil nitrogen budget per region | The nitrogen soil budgets in Northern America, Europe, Russia and Central Asia, Japan and Oceania are stable or decreasing after 2005, they are projected to strongly increase in many other regions in a baseline scenario. | Baseline figure | File:147g img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Terrestrial biodiversity | Terrestrial biodiversity | Prevented global MSA (Mean Species Abundance) loss compared to baseline scenario, 2000 - 2050 | Several policy interventions in land-use regulation, production and demand systems could prevent some of the biodiversity loss projected in the baseline. The single largest effects can be expected from closing the yield gap, and from dietary changes. | Policy intervention figure | File:100g img13.png |
| Baseline figure Terrestrial biodiversity | Terrestrial biodiversity | Pressures driving global biodiversity loss under a baseline scenario | Land-use change and encroachment are projected to remain the most important drivers of biodiversity loss, but climate change will also become a significant pressure. | Baseline figure | File:099g img13.png |
| Baseline figure Water | Water | Global water demand and water stress under a baseline scenario | As a result of increasing water demand and climate change, the number of people living under water stress is projected to increase (top, OECD 2012), and more regions might face a reduction in crop production due to irrigation water shortage (bottom, Biemans 2012). | Baseline figure | File:082x img13.png |
| Policy intervention figure Water | Water | Contribution of water sources to meet irrigation water demand | Three of the five water basins on the Indian subcontinent strongly rely on groundwater resources to meet irrigation water demand. Doubling the capacity of large dams can increase the amount of irrigation water available in some basins. In all basins, improved irrigation efficiency leads to a significant reduction in water required for irrigation. | Policy intervention figure | File:085x img13.png |