Emissions/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions
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{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate | {{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate | ||
|Reference=IPCC, 2006; Granier et al., 2011; Lamarque, Bond et al. 2010 | |||
|Description===Data== | |||
There is a range of different inventories that provide global emission data. The [[EDGAR database|database of EDGAR]] ([[JRC/PBL 2012]]) was preferred for IMAGE given its high level of detail and the similar sectoral and regional definitions. Important alternative inventories include the database underlying the RAINS/GAINS system, the [[RETRO database]] and the [[RCP database]] ([[Lamarque, Bond et al., 2010]]). A recent overview of available inventories by [[Granier et al., 2011]] showed that there are large differences between the databases for carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulphur dioxide and black carbon, both on the global and regional scale. For land-use-related emissions, most emission factors are based on IPCC methodologies and parameters ([[IPCC, 2006]]). | |||
==Uncertainties== | |||
In translating the EDGAR data to IMAGE emission factors, the data need to be aggregated. In this process, decisions need to be made (e.g. on the use of weighted averages or representative sectors), which leads to additional uncertainties. In general terms, emission factors for CO2 from energy and industry are rather certain, whereas non-CO2 emissions from energy and industry have a higher uncertainty. Uncertainty in emission factors for land use and natural sources is larger than for energy and industry sources, due to the extreme variability of the controlling factors of processes in space and time. | |||
Future emissions and their uncertainty obviously depend on the activity levels as determined by other IMAGE modules, and on the emission factors. Emission factors for land use are kept constant, whereas estimations of future emission factors in the energy and industry system, as described above, rely on historical observations and learning curves. However, future legislation and its effective implementation can influence these factors in a much stronger and more abrupt way. Also emission factors for land use activities may change in the future also in the absence of climate policy, but due to a lack of data, they assumed to be constant. | |||
As future development of emission factors is by definition uncertain, we normally explore their influence by changing the emission factors for different storyline-based scenarios. | |||
==Limitations== | |||
IMAGE system covers almost all relevant emission sources and gases in a consistent framework, based on a few international datasets and authoritative sources. However, for some specific emissions are only included as a group, without the underlying production processes. Even more important, IMAGE does not yet include emissions from peat and peat fires, although they constitute an important source of air pollutants and CO2 ([[IPCC Ref.]]) | |||
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Revision as of 13:57, 15 January 2014
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