Extensive components overview

Driver components

Component	Main Publications	Flowchart
Drivers	No key references defined.	Flowchart Drivers

Pressure components

Component	Main Publications	Flowchart
Agricultural economy	E. Stehfest, M. Berg, G. Woltjer, S. Msangi, H. Westhoek (2013). Options to reduce the environmental effects of livestock production - Comparison of two economic models. Agricultural Systems, 114, pp. 38-53, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2012.07.002. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2012/options-to-reduce-the-environmental-effects-of-livestock-production-%E2%80%93-comparison-of-two-economic-models. Von Lampe, M., Willenbockel D., Calvin K., Fujimori S., Hasegawa T., Havlik P., Kyle P., Lotze-Campen H., Mason d’Croz D., Nelson G., Sands R., Schmitz C., Tabeau A., Valin H., van der Mensbrugghe D. and van Meijl H. (2014). Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison.. Agricultural Economics, Special Issue on Global Model Intercomparison, 45(1), pp. 3-20, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/agec.12086. G.B. Woltjer, M. Kuiper, A. Kavallari, H. van Meijl, J. Powell, M. Rutten, L. Shutes, A. Tabeau (2014). , LEI, The Hague.	Flowchart Agricultural economy
Energy conversion	H.S. de Boer and D.P. van Vuuren (2017). Representation of variable renewable energy source in TIMER, an aggregated energy system simulation model. Energy Economics, 64, pp. 600-611, doi: http://dx.doi.org/http://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.12.006. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/representation-of-variable-renewable-energy-sources-in-timer-an-aggregated-energy-system-simulation-model. C. Hendriks, M Harmelink, K. Burges, K. Ransel (2004). Power and heat productions: plant developments and grid losses, Ecofys, Utrecht. M. Hoogwijk, D. van Vuuren, B. de Vries, W. Turkenburg (2007). Exploring the impact on cost and electricity production of high penetration levels of intermittent electricity in OECD Europe and the USA, results for wind energy. Energy, 32(8), pp. 1381-1402, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2006.09.004. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2007/Exploringtheimpactoncostandelectricityproductionofhighpenetrationlevelsofintermittentelectricityin.	Flowchart Energy conversion
Energy demand	V. Daioglou, B. J. van Ruijven, D. P. van Vuuren (2012). Model projections for household energy use in developing countries. Energy, 37(1), pp. 601-615, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.10.044. B. Girod, D. P. van Vuuren, S. Deetman (2012). . Energy Policy, 45, pp. 152-166, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.008. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2012/global-travel-within-the-2-degree-celsius-climate-target. B. J. van Ruijven, J. Schers, D. P. van Vuuren (2012). Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in developing countries. Energy, 38(1), pp. 386-397, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.11.037. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2012/model-based-scenarios-for-rural-electrification-in-developing-countries.	Flowchart Energy demand
Energy supply	B. J. M. de Vries, D. P. van Vuuren, M. M. Hoogwijk (2007). Renewable energy sources: Their global potential for the first-half of the 21st century at a global level: An integrated approach. Energy Policy, 35(4), pp. 2590-2610, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2006.09.002. D. P. van Vuuren, B. de Vries, A. Beusen, P. S. C. Heuberger (2008). Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 18(4), pp. 635-654, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.06.001. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2008/Conditional-probabilistic-estimates-of-21st-century-greenhouse-gas-emissions-based-on-the-storylines. D. P. van Vuuren, J. van Vliet, E. Stehfest (2009). Future bio-energy potential under various natural constraints. Energy Policy, 37(11), pp. 4220-4230, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.05.029. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009/Future-bio-energy-potential-under-various-natural-constraints.	Flowchart Energy supply
Forest management	E.J.M.M. Arets, P.J. van der Meer, C.C. Verwer, G.M. Hengeveld, G.W. Tolkamp, G.J. Nabuurs, M. van Oorschot (2011). Global wood production : assessment of industrial round wood supply from forest management systems in different global regions, Alterra Wageningen UR.	Flowchart Forest management
Land-use allocation	J.C. Doelman, E. Stehfest, A. Tabeau, H. van Meijl, L. Lassaletta, K. Neumann-Hermans, D.E.H.J. Gernaat, M. Harmsen, V. Daioglou, H. Biemans, S. van der Sluis, D.P. van Vuuren (2018). Exploring SSP land-use dynamics using the IMAGE model: Regional and gridded scenarios of land-use change and land-based climate change mitigation. Global Environmental Change, 48(January), pp. 119-135, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.014. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/exploring-ssp-land-use-dynamics-using-the-image-model-regional-and-gridded-scenarios-of-land-use-change-and-land-ba. Van Asselen, S. and Verburg P.H. (2012). A land system representation for global assessments and land-use modeling. Global Change Biology, 18, pp. 3125-3148, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02759.x.	Flowchart Land-use allocation
Livestock systems	A. F. Bouwman, K. W. Van Der Hoek, B. Eickhout, I. Soenario (2005). Exploring changes in world ruminant production systems. Agricultural Systems, 84(2), pp. 121-153, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2004.05.006. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2005/Exploringchangesinworldruminantproductionsystems.	Flowchart Livestock systems

Interaction components

Component	Main Publications	Flowchart
Emissions	O. Braspenning Radu, M. van den Berg, Z. Klimont, S. Deetman, G. Janssens-Maenhout, M. Muntean, C. Heyes, F. Dentener, D. P. van Vuuren (2016). Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios. Atmospheric Environment, 140, pp. 577-591, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.05.021. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/exploring-synergies-between-climate-and-air-quality-policies-using-long-term-global-and-regional-emission-scenarios. D. P. van Vuuren, J. Cofala, H. E. Eerens, R. Oostenrijk, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, M. G. J. den Elzen, M. Amann (2006). Exploring the ancillary benefits of the Kyoto Protocol for air pollution in Europe. Energy Policy, 34(4), pp. 444-460, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2004.06.012. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2004/Exploring_the_ancillary_benefits_of_the_Kyoto_Protocol_for_air_pollution_in_Europe. D. P. Van Vuuren, L. F. Bouwman, S. J. Smith, F. Dentener (2011). Global projections for anthropogenic reactive nitrogen emissions to the atmosphere: An assessment of scenarios in the scientific literature. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 3(5), pp. 359-369, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2011.08.014. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2011/global-projections-anthropogenic-reactive-nitrogen-emissions-to-the-atmosphere.	Flowchart Emissions
Land cover and land use	M. Mandryk, J.C. Doelman, E. Stehfest (2015). Assessment of global land availability..FOODSECURE Technical paper no. 7.URL: http://www.foodsecure.eu/PublicationDetail.aspx?id=194. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publicaties/assessment-of-global-land-availability-land-supply-for-agriculture.

State components

Component	Main Publications	Flowchart
Atmospheric composition and climate	M. Meinshausen, T. M. L. Wigley, S. C. B. Raper (2011). Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11(4), pp. 1457-1471. Ch. Müller, E. Stehfest, J.G. van Minnen, B. Strengers, W. von Bloh, A. Beusen, S. Schaphoff, T. Kram, W. Lucht (2016). Reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance under climate and land-use change. Environmental Research Letters, 11(4), doi: http://dx.doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044002. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/drivers-and-patterns-of-land-biosphere-carbon-balance-reversal. D. P. van Vuuren, E. Stehfest (2013). If climate action becomes urgent: The importance of response times for various climate strategies. Climatic Change, 121(3), pp. 473-486, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0769-5. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/if-climate-action-becomes-urgent-the-importance-of-response-times-for-various-climate-strategies.	Flowchart Atmospheric composition and climate
Carbon cycle and natural vegetation	C. Müller, E. Stehfest, J. G. Van Minnen, B. Strengers, W. Von Bloh, A. H. W. Beusen, S. Schaphoff, T. Kram, W. Lucht (2016). Drivers and patterns of land biosphere carbon balance reversal. Environmental Research Letters, 11(4), doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044002. S. Sitch, B. Smith, I.C. Prentice, A. Arneth, A. Bondeau, W. Cramer, J.O. Kaplan, S. Levis, W. Lucht, M.T. Sykes, K. Thonicke, S. Venevsky (2003). Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology, 9(2), pp. 161-185.	Flowchart Carbon cycle and natural vegetation
Crops and grass	A. Bondeau, P. C. Smith, S. Zaehle, S. Schaphoff, W. Lucht, W. Cramer, D. Gerten, H. Lotze-Campen, C. Müller, M. Reichstein, B. Smith (2007). Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance. Global Change Biology, 13(3), pp. 679-706. K. Waha, L.G.J. van Bussel, C. Müller, A. Bondeau (2012). Climate-driven simulation of global crop sowing dates. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 21(2), pp. 247-259, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00678.x.	Flowchart Crops and grass
Nutrients	A. H. W. Beusen, L. P. H. Van Beek, A. F. Bouwman, J. M. Mogollón, J. J. Middelburg (2015). Coupling global models for hydrology and nutrient loading to simulate nitrogen and phosphorus retention in surface water - Description of IMAGE-GNM and analysis of performance. Geoscientific Model Development, 8(12), pp. 4045-4067, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-4045-2015. A. H. W. Beusen, A. F. Bouwman, L. P. H. Van Beek, J. M. Mogollón, J. J. Middelburg (2016). Global riverine N and P transport to ocean increased during the 20th century despite increased retention along the aquatic continuum. Biogeosciences, 13(8), pp. 2441-2451, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2441-2016. Beusen A.H.W. (2014). Transport of nutriens from land to sea: Global modeling approaches and uncertainty analyses.Ph.D thesis.Utrecht University.The Netherlands.URL: http://dspace.library.uu.nl/handle/1874/298665 Morée A.L., Beusen A.H.W., Bouwman A.F., Willems W.J. (2013). Exploring global nitrogen and phosphorus flows in urban wastes during the twentieth century. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 27, pp. 836-846, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20072. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/exploring-global-nitrogen-and-phosphorus-flows-in-urban-wastes-during-the-twentieth-century.	Flowchart Nutrients
Water	H Biemans, I Haddeland, P Kabat, F Ludwig, RWA Hutjes, J Heinke, W Von Bloh, D Gerten (2011). Impact of reservoirs on river discharge and irrigation water supply during the 20th century. Water Resources Research, 47(3), pp. W03509, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008929. H. Biemans (2012). Water constraints on future food production.Earth System Science.Ph.D thesis.Wageningen University.The Netherlands. D. Gerten, S. Schaphoff, U. Haberlandt, W. Lucht, S. Sitch (2004). Terrestrial vegetation and water balance - hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology, 286(1-4), pp. 249-270, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.029.	Flowchart Water

Impact component

Component	Main Publications	Flowchart
Aquatic biodiversity	Alkemade, R., Janse, J.H., Van Rooij, W., Trisurat, Y. (2011). Applying GLOBIO at different geographical levels. In: Trisurat, Y., Shrestha, R.P., Alkemade, R. (eds.), Land Use, Climate change and biodiversity modeling: perspectives and applications. IGI Global, Hershey (PA), USA, pp. 150-170. J.H. Janse, J.J. Kuiper, M.J. Weijters, E.P. Westerbeek, M.H.J.L. Jeuken, R. Alkemade, J. T. A. Verhoeven (2013). GLOBIO-aquatic, a global model of human impact on the biodiversity of inland aquatic ecosystems. Submitted, available on request.	Flowchart Aquatic biodiversity
Ecosystem services	C. J. E. Schulp, R. Alkemade, K. Klein Goldewijk, K. Petz (2012). Mapping ecosystem functions and services in Eastern Europe using global-scale data sets. International Journal of Biodiversity Science, Ecosystem Services and Management, 8(1-2), pp. 156-168, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/21513732.2011.645880. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2012/mapping-ecosystem-functions-and-services-in-eastern-europe-using-global-scale-data-sets.	Flowchart Ecosystem services
Flood risks	P. J. Ward, B. Jongman, F. Sperna Weiland, A. A. Bouwman, R. van Beek, M.F.P. Bierkens, W. Ligtvoet, H. C. Winsemius (2013). Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity. Environmental Research Letters, 8, pp. 8044019, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019. H. C. Winsemius, L. P. H. Van Beek, B. Jongman, P. J. Ward, A. A. Bouwman (2012). A framework for global river flood risk assessments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 9(8), pp. 9611-9659.	Flowchart Flood risks
Human development	H.B.M. Hilderink, P.L. Lucas (2008). Towards a global integrated sustainability model: GISMO 1.0 status report, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2008/Towards-a-Global-Integrated-Sustainability-Model-GISMO1.0-status-report. PBL (2009). Beyond 2015: Long-term development and the Millennium Development Goals, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009/Beyond-2015_-Long-term-development-and-the-Millennium-Development-Goals. PBL (2012). Roads from Rio+20: Pathways to achieve global sustainability goals by 2050, D.P. Van VuurenM.T.J. Kok (eds.), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2012/roads-from-rio20.	Flowchart Human development
Land degradation	R.M. Hootsmans, A.F. Bouwman, R. Leemans, G.J.J. Kreileman (2001). Modelling land degradation in IMAGE 2, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands(URL: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2001/Modelling_land_degradation_in_IMAGE_2). J. J. Stoorvogel, M. Bakkenes, A.J.A.M. Temme, N.H. Batjes, B.J.E. ten Brink (2017). S-World: A Global Soil Map for Environmental Modelling. Land Degradation and Development, 28(1), pp. 22-33, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2656. J.J. Stoorvogel (2014). S-world: A global map of soil properties for modeling. In: D. ArrouaysN. McKenzeyJ. HempelA.C. Richer de ForgesA. McBratney (eds.), GlobalSoilMap, basis of the global spatial soil information system. Taylor & Francis Group, London, UK, pp. 227-231. R. van Beek (2012). Estimating soil hydraulic properties for reconstructed maps of historic land use using pedotransfer functions, Utrecht University (Internal report), The Netherlands.	Flowchart Land degradation
Terrestrial biodiversity	R. Alkemade, M. Van Oorschot, L. Miles, C. Nellemann, M. Bakkenes, B. Ten Brink (2009). GLOBIO3: A framework to investigate options for reducing global terrestrial biodiversity loss. Ecosystems, 12(3), pp. 374-390. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009/GLOBIO3-A-Framework-to-investigate-options-for-reducing-global-terrestrial-biodiversity-loss. PBL (2010). Rethinking global biodiversity strategies, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2010/Rethinking_Global_Biodiversity_Strategies.	Flowchart Terrestrial biodiversity

Response components

Component	Main Publications	Flowchart
Air pollution and energy policies	No key references defined.	Flowchart Air pollution and energy policies
Climate policy	M. G. J. Den Elzen, P. L. Lucas, D. P. Van Vuuren (2008). Regional abatement action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO2-equivalent concentrations. Climatic Change, 90(3), pp. 243-268, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9466-1. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2008/Regional-abatement-action-and-costs-under-allocation-schemes-for-emission-allowances-for-achieving-low-CO2. M. G. J. Den Elzen, A. F. Hof, A. Mendoza Beltran, G. Grassi, M. Roelfsema, B. van Ruijven, J. van Vliet, D. P. van Vuuren (2011). The Copenhagen Accord: Abatement costs and carbon prices resulting from the submissions. Environmental Science and Policy, 14(1), pp. 28-39, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2010.10.010. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2011/The-Copenhagen-Accord-abatement-costs-and-carbon-prices-resulting-from-the-submissions. A. F. Hof, K. C. de Bruin, R. B. Dellink, M. G. J. den Elzen, D. P. van Vuuren (2009). The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation. Environmental Science and Policy, 12(7), pp. 832-843, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.08.007. J. van Vliet, M. G. J. den Elzen, D. P. van Vuuren (2009). Meeting radiative forcing targets under delayed participation. Energy Economics, 31(SUPPL. 2), pp. 152-162, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.010. Link to PBL-website: http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/2009/Meeting-radiative-forcing-targets-under-delayed-participation.	Flowchart Climate policy
Land and biodiversity policies	No key references defined.	Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (A) Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (B) Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (C) Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (D)