Land-use allocation/Description: Difference between revisions
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|Reference=Van Asselen and Verburg, 2013; Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012; Klein Goldewijk et al., 2010; O'Neill, 2013; Lambin et al., 2000; Doelman and Stehfest, in preparation; IIASA and FAO, 2012; Nelson, 2008; Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011; Letourneau et al., 2012; | |Reference=Van Asselen and Verburg, 2013; Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012; Klein Goldewijk et al., 2010; O'Neill, 2013; Lambin et al., 2000; Doelman and Stehfest, in preparation; IIASA and FAO, 2012; Nelson, 2008; Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011; Letourneau et al., 2012; | ||
|Description=IMAGE 3.0 has two methods to represent land-use dynamics and to determine the location of new agricultural lands. For applications not focusing on land-use dynamics, a simple regression-based suitability assessment is used to determine future land-use patterns. A dynamic link to CLUMondo ([[Van Asselen and Verburg, 2013]]) enables more detailed representation of land-use systems and their dynamics. Both approaches are embedded in the IMAGE land-use allocation model (see flowchart). | |Description=IMAGE 3.0 has two methods to represent land-use dynamics and to determine the location of new agricultural lands. For applications not focusing on land-use dynamics, a simple regression-based suitability assessment is used to determine future land-use patterns. A dynamic link to CLUMondo ([[Van Asselen and Verburg, 2013]]) enables more detailed representation of land-use systems and their dynamics. Both approaches are embedded in the IMAGE land-use allocation model (see flowchart). | ||
Both approaches are driven by regional crop and grassland production and their respective intensity levels, as calculated by the IMAGE agro-economic model ([[Agricultural economy]]). Agricultural land use is allocated to grid cells in an iterative process until the required regional production of crops and grass is met. Land use in IMAGE is modelled using dominant land use per grid cell on a 5 x 5 minute resolution, distinguishing extensive grasslands, agricultural and non-agricultural grid cells, and within agricultural land areas fractions of grass, seven rain-fed and seven irrigated crop types, and bioenergy crops. | Both approaches are driven by regional crop and grassland production and their respective intensity levels, as calculated by the IMAGE agro-economic model ([[Agricultural economy]]). Agricultural land use is allocated to grid cells in an iterative process until the required regional production of crops and grass is met. Land use in IMAGE is modelled using dominant land use per grid cell on a 5 x 5 minute resolution, distinguishing extensive grasslands, agricultural and non-agricultural grid cells, and within agricultural land areas fractions of grass, seven rain-fed and seven irrigated crop types, and bioenergy crops. | ||
In each time step, maps of actual crop yields are computed by combining the potential crop and grassland yields calculated by the crop model ([[ | In each time step, maps of actual crop yields are computed by combining the potential crop and grassland yields calculated by the crop model ([[Crops and grass]]), and the regional management intensity from the agro-economic model ([[Agricultural economy]]). Starting with the land-cover and land-use map of the previous time step, actual yields are used to determine crop and grassland production on current agricultural land. This is compared to the required regional crop and grassland production. If the demand exceeds calculated production, the agricultural area needs to be expanded at the cost of natural vegetation. If the calculated production of current cropland exceeds the required production, agricultural land is abandoned to adjust to the production required. | ||
Crop and grassland is either abandoned or expanded until the required production is met. Since actual yields are taken into account, changes in crop yields in time due to technological change, climate change and land heterogeneity are included. If yields in the new agricultural areas are lower than average in the current area, relatively more agricultural land is required compared to the production increase. | Crop and grassland is either abandoned or expanded until the required production is met. Since actual yields are taken into account, changes in crop yields in time due to technological change, climate change and land heterogeneity are included. If yields in the new agricultural areas are lower than average in the current area, relatively more agricultural land is required compared to the production increase. | ||
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Land-use change is determined by various factors, such as climate and climate variability, soil and terrain characteristics, and socio-economic variables, such as population density and accessibility ([[O'Neill, 2013]]). Land-use change dynamics differ substantially between regions ([[Lambin et al., 2000]]). These characteristics are taken into account in IMAGE 3.0 in a regional suitability assessment based on an empirical multiple linear regression analysis. | Land-use change is determined by various factors, such as climate and climate variability, soil and terrain characteristics, and socio-economic variables, such as population density and accessibility ([[O'Neill, 2013]]). Land-use change dynamics differ substantially between regions ([[Lambin et al., 2000]]). These characteristics are taken into account in IMAGE 3.0 in a regional suitability assessment based on an empirical multiple linear regression analysis. | ||
The suitability assessment includes data on two biophysical determinants: the potential yield which covers effects of climate and soil ([[ | The suitability assessment includes data on two biophysical determinants: the potential yield which covers effects of climate and soil ([[Crops and grass]]), and [[Slope - grid|the terrain slope index]] based on {{abbrTemplate|SRTM}} elevation data (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) from NASA. Two socio-economic determinants are included: population density ([[Klein Goldewijk et al., 2010]]), and the accessibility index from JRC ([[Nelson, 2008]]), which is defined as minutes travel time to major cities (>50,000 inhabitants). | ||
These four independent variables are used in multiple linear regression analysis to investigate the relationship between these land-use determinants and current land use (fractions of crop and grassland in 2005 from [[Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011]]). The analysis is performed separately for each IMAGE region, and takes into account the logarithmic relationship found for all independent variables except for potential crop yield. | These four independent variables are used in multiple linear regression analysis to investigate the relationship between these land-use determinants and current land use (fractions of crop and grassland in 2005 from [[Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011]]). The analysis is performed separately for each IMAGE region, and takes into account the logarithmic relationship found for all independent variables except for potential crop yield. | ||
Revision as of 09:11, 17 May 2014
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