Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentSubLimitationTemplate
{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
|Reference=Van Vliet et al., 2013
|Reference=Hendriks et al., 2004b;Van Ruijven et al., 2007;WEC, 2010;MIT, 2003;IRENA, 2016;De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017;Pietzcker et al., 2017;Luderer et al., 2017;IEA, 2019;Schoots et al., 2008;IEA, 2021;S&P, 2017;DEA, 2018;IRENA, 2022;IRENA, 2020
|Description=<h2>Data</h2>
}}
The data for the model comes from several sources, the main sources are documented below:
<div class="page_standard">
* Electricity production and primary inputs: Source [[hasAcronym::IEA]] Statistics and Data
==Data, uncertainty and limitations==
* Capacity; Source: POLES database; IEA
===Data===
* Data on performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants; Source; Mostly Hendriks et al.
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:
* Prices: Source IEA
* Hydropower potential; Source: [[hasAcronym::WEA]]


==Uncertainties==
==== Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module ====
Important uncertainties in the calculation of the future role of energy conversion are the technology development rates of the various options and the system consequences of high level of renewable penetration.
<table class="pbltable">


In the TIMER energy model, the model behavior regarding the latter factors has been tested for different penetration levels of renewables in the USA and Western Europe by [[Hoogwijk et al., 2007|Hoogwijk et al (2007)]]. Model experiments show that the model behaves in accordance with more detailed information on system integration costs. More recent studies, however, seem to suggest that some of the limitations can be overcome at reasonable costs. The integration costs are, however, very uncertain given the fact that, except for a few countries, the situation of high shares of renewable penetration still needs to be reached. In the experiments run by [[Van Vliet et al., 2013|Van Vliet et al (2013)]], the power system was exposed to all kinds of limitation to technology availability. These experiments clearly show the importance of certain options in the context of achieving low mitigation targets such as the combination of bio-energy and [[hasAcronym::CCS]] and of CCS in general.
<tr>
}}
<th>Input
</th>
<th>Data source
</th></tr>
<tr><td>Electricity production and primary inputs
</td>
<td> [[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Capacity of different plant types per region
</td>
<td>Energy Statistics and Data ([[Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data]]; [[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]); IRENA ([[IRENA, 2022|2022]]); S&P ([[S&P, 2017|2017]])
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants
</td>
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004a|2004a]]), various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
<tr><td>{{abbrTemplate|CCS}} plants and storage
</td>
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004b|2004b]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Prices
</td>
<td>[[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hydropower potential
</td>
<td>Gernaat et al. ([[Gernaat et al., 2017|2017]])
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Solar and wind costs
</td>
<td>Various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]), residential rooftop PV ([[Gernaat et al., 2020]]), offshore wind ([[Gernaat et al., 2014]]; [[DEA, 2018]]), concentrated solar power ([[Köberle et al., 2015|Koberle et al., 2015]]), onshore wind and central solar PV ([[Hoogwijk, 2004]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nuclear power - technology and resources
</td>
<td>[[WEC-Uranium]] ([[WEC, 2010]]; [[MIT, 2003]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hydrogen technologies
</td>
<td>[[Van Ruijven et al., 2007]]; [[Schoots et al., 2008]]; IEA ([[IEA, 2019|2019]]); IRENA ([[IRENA, 2020|2020]])
</td>
</tr>
</table>
 
===Uncertainties===
The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy.
TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]; [[Pietzcker et al., 2017]]; [[Luderer et al., 2017]]). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe electricity system developments.  
 
===Limitations===
The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. A more detailed discussion on the model limitations can be found in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]).
 
Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.
</div>

Latest revision as of 12:28, 18 November 2022

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Aggregated component:Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Key publications
References
TIMER model, electricity module
Flowchart Energy conversion. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

Data, uncertainty and limitations

Data

The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:

Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module

Input Data source
Electricity production and primary inputs IEA Statistics and Data
Capacity of different plant types per region Energy Statistics and Data (Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data; IEA Statistics and Data); IRENA (2022); S&P (2017)
Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants Hendriks et al. (2004a), various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017); IEA (2021)
CCS plants and storage Hendriks et al. (2004b); IEA (2021)
Prices IEA Statistics and Data
Hydropower potential Gernaat et al. (2017)
Solar and wind costs Various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017), residential rooftop PV (Gernaat et al., 2020), offshore wind (Gernaat et al., 2014; DEA, 2018), concentrated solar power (Koberle et al., 2015), onshore wind and central solar PV (Hoogwijk, 2004); IEA (2021)
Nuclear power - technology and resources WEC-Uranium (WEC, 2010; MIT, 2003); IEA (2021)
Hydrogen technologies Van Ruijven et al., 2007; Schoots et al., 2008; IEA (2019); IRENA (2020)

Uncertainties

The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy. TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017; Pietzcker et al., 2017; Luderer et al., 2017). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe electricity system developments.

Limitations

The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. A more detailed discussion on the model limitations can be found in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017).

Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.

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