Agricultural economy/Policy issues: Difference between revisions
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{{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate | {{ComponentPolicyIssueTemplate | ||
|Reference=Banse et al., 2008; Verburg et al., 2009; PBL, 2010; PBL, 2011; Westhoek et al. (unpublished); Overmars et al. | |Reference=Banse et al., 2008; Verburg et al., 2009; PBL, 2010; PBL, 2011; Westhoek et al. (unpublished); Overmars et al., accepted; | ||
|Description=In a typical baseline scenario, agricultural crop and livestock production increases strongly, driven by both population increase and dietary changes. This is also the case in baseline scenarios shown in Figure 4.2.2[[*********]] (based on both [[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] and [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]] calculations). As a consequence of production increases, also the total area of cropland and pasture is projected to increase, although this is less certain. Depending on scenario and region, some baseline scenarios may also show decreasing land areas, certainly after 2030 when population starts to decline in several regions. | |Description=In a typical baseline scenario, agricultural crop and livestock production increases strongly, driven by both population increase and dietary changes. This is also the case in baseline scenarios shown in Figure 4.2.2[[*********]] (based on both [[MAGNET model|MAGNET]] and [[IMPACT model|IMPACT]] calculations). As a consequence of production increases, also the total area of cropland and pasture is projected to increase, although this is less certain. Depending on scenario and region, some baseline scenarios may also show decreasing land areas, certainly after 2030 when population starts to decline in several regions. | ||
|Example=The policy interventions that can be studied with the coupled IMAGE-MAGNET and IMAGE-IMPACT framework are numerous: | |Example=The policy interventions that can be studied with the coupled IMAGE-MAGNET and IMAGE-IMPACT framework are numerous: | ||
- Biofuel policies ([[Banse et al., 2008]]): Partly as an autonomous process under high oil prices, but mainly driven by biofuel policies, the share of biofuels (so far, only first-generation) in the transport sector is projected to increase. The model can be used to estimate both direct and indirect land-use change and associated emissions (Figure 4.2.3a[[*********]]). | - Biofuel policies ([[Banse et al., 2008]]): Partly as an autonomous process under high oil prices, but mainly driven by biofuel policies, the share of biofuels (so far, only first-generation) in the transport sector is projected to increase. The model can be used to estimate both direct and indirect land-use change and associated emissions (Figure 4.2.3a[[*********]]). | ||
- REDD policies: Forest protection leads to a reduction in CO2 emissions from land-use change; related opportunity costs can be used to estimate cost curves for the emission abatement that results from [[REDD]] policies (e.g. ([[Overmars et al. | - REDD policies: Forest protection leads to a reduction in CO2 emissions from land-use change; related opportunity costs can be used to estimate cost curves for the emission abatement that results from [[REDD]] policies (e.g. ([[Overmars et al., accepted]]) | ||
- Agricultural and trade policies can be assessed for their effects on land use, greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity ([[Verburg et al., 2009]]). | - Agricultural and trade policies can be assessed for their effects on land use, greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity ([[Verburg et al., 2009]]). | ||
- Measures to reduce the loss of biodiversity via an increase in protected areas, increased agricultural productivity, and waste reduction ([[PBL, 2010]]). Several biodiversity options, in a stepwise introduction, affect land and commodity prices as well as land-use change (Figure 3b)[[*********]]. | - Measures to reduce the loss of biodiversity via an increase in protected areas, increased agricultural productivity, and waste reduction ([[PBL, 2010]]). Several biodiversity options, in a stepwise introduction, affect land and commodity prices as well as land-use change (Figure 3b)[[*********]]. | ||
Revision as of 17:15, 1 May 2014
Parts of Agricultural economy/Policy issues
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