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Baseline figure Agricultural economyErcab7abaf2 hr.jpgBaseline figureAgricultural economyGlobal agricultural production and areas per regionFood availability measured in kcal per capita per day available for consumption, for initial situation (2010) and for the SSP scenarios (2100), globally and by region. (van Meijl et al., 2020b)
Flowchart Agricultural economy045x img13.pngFlowchartAgricultural economyMAGNET- the agro-economic model in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Agricultural economy. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon AEFIcon AEF.pngIconAgricultural economyLink to framework components overviewPressure component: Agricultural economy
Policy intervention figure Agricultural economyGcb14887-fig-0006-m.jpgPolicy intervention figureAgricultural economy(a) Land use in 2010. Land-use change in (b) 2010–2050 and (c) 2010–2100 for the scenarios with afforestation (Doelman et al., 2020)
Icon ALUIcon ALU.pngIconAgriculture and land useLink to framework components overviewMain pressure component: Agriculture and land use
Policy intervention figure Land cover and land use011x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureAgriculture and land useGlobal food production and land use under the baseline scenarioChanges in agricultural production and land use
Baseline figure Air pollution and energy policies129x img13.pngBaseline figureAir pollution and energy policiesGlobal household access to modern fuels for cooking and heating under a baseline scenarioA few key indicators show the trends for energy security, access, air pollution under a baseline scenario.
Flowchart Air pollution and energy policies128s img13.pngFlowchartAir pollution and energy policiesLinkages between goals and measures for energy access, energy security, climate change and air pollutionFlowchart Air pollution and energy policies. Linkages between components of the IMAGE system, energy policy objectives and possible policy measures.
Icon APEPIcon APEP.pngIconAir pollution and energy policieslink to framework components overviewResponse component: Air pollution and energy policies
Policy intervention figure Air pollution and energy policies132g img13.pngPolicy intervention figureAir pollution and energy policiesGlobal energy trade under the baseline and sustainability scenarios, 2050Compared to the baseline, energy trade is significantly reduced under the sustainability scenarios (PBL, 2012).
Baseline figure Aquatic biodiversity102x img13.pngBaseline figureAquatic biodiversityAquatic Mean Species Abundance under a baseline scenarioIn a baseline scenario, aquatic biodiversity is projected to decrease further.
Flowchart Aquatic biodiversity101s img13.pngFlowchartAquatic biodiversityGLOBIO model for aquatic ecosystemsFlowchart Aquatic biodiversity. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon ABIcon AB.pngIconAquatic biodiversityLink to framework components overviewImpact component: Aquatic biodiversity
Policy intervention figure Aquatic biodiversity170k img13.pngPolicy intervention figureAquatic biodiversityAvoided aquatic biodiversity loss compared to the baseline, under a combination of policy optionsA set of ambitious policy options could reduce aquatic biodiversity loss compared to a baseline scenario.
Baseline figure Atmospheric composition and climate091x img13.pngBaseline figureAtmospheric composition and climateGreenhouse gas emissions, CO2 concentration, temperature increase and radiative forcing under baseline and climate policy scenariosIn the policy scenarios, emissions decrease strongly after 2020, while concentration levels only decrease or stabilise after 2050. Global mean temperature, due to inertia in the climate system, will not stabilise until the end of this century under the most ambitious climate policy scenario (2.6 W/m2).
Flowchart Atmospheric composition and climate090s img13.pngFlowchartAtmospheric composition and climateAtmospheric composition and climate model (based on MAGICC 6.0) in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Atmospheric composition and climate. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon ACCIcon ACC.pngIconAtmospheric composition and climateLink to framework components overviewState component: Atmospheric composition and climate
Policy intervention figure Atmospheric composition and climate096x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureAtmospheric composition and climateRadiative forcing and temperature change under baseline and policy scenariosIn addition to ‘conventional’ climate policy, there may be situations where urgent action on climate change is required, either via rapid mitigation, or via Solar Radiation Management (SRM) (e.g. sulphur emissions to the stratosphere). Radiative forcing is immediately stabilised at the intended level by SRM, and also temperatures are adjusted immediately (though not yet at the equilibrium level), and even faster under extreme SRM than would be possible through strong mitigation. However, substantial uncertainties and risks are related to such drastic manipulations of the radiation balance.
Baseline figure Carbon cycle and natural vegetation600px 075g img13.pngBaseline figureCarbon cycle and natural vegetation
IMAGE framework summary/Earth system
Cumulative terrestrial carbon flux of long-term climate scenariosCumulative terrestrial carbon flux of long-term climate scenarios (Müller et al., 2016)
Flowchart Carbon cycle and natural vegetation073s img13.pngFlowchartCarbon cycle and natural vegetationCarbon cycle and natural vegetation module of LPJmL, in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Carbon cycle and natural vegetation. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon NVCCIcon NVCC.pngIconCarbon cycle and natural vegetationLink to framework components overviewState component: Carbon cycle and natural vegetation
Policy intervention figure Carbon cycle and natural vegetation II600px 076g img13.pngPolicy intervention figureCarbon cycle and natural vegetationChange in cumulative CO2 emissions under increasing forest protection, compared to the baseline scenario, 2010-2030Increasingly strict REDD regimes might lead to substantial reduction in cumulative terrestrial CO2 emission (Overmars et al., 2014).
Icon VHAIcon VHA.pngIconCarbon, vegetation, agriculture and waterlink to framework components overviewMain state components: Carbon, vegetation, agriculture and water
Baseline figure Climate policy122x img13.pngBaseline figureClimate policyGreenhouse gas emissions under baseline scenarios and pledges, for BrazilThe national projection is from the National Decree No. 7390, and the WEO 2010 projection is from the World Energy Outlook (2010) of International Energy Agency.
Flowchart Climate policy121s img13.pngFlowchartClimate policyFAIR, the climate policy model in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Climate policy. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon CPIcon CP.pngIconClimate policyLink to framework components overviewResponse component: Climate policy
002g ind16 CP002g ind16.pngPolicy intervention figureClimate policyRegional and global abatement costs for NDCs
Policy intervention figure Climate policy125x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureClimate policyGreenhouse gas emissions, radiative forcing and costs under mitigation scenariosScenario results describing emission pathways representing optimal and delayed policy action (Copenhagen pledges) in 2020, in terms of CO2 emission (including land use), associated radiative forcing (including all gases and aerosol forcing), and global mitigation costs (as percentage of GDP).
Core model venn diagramCore model.pngOther type of figureComputer models overviewVenn diagram core modelVenn diagram of models used in IMAGE framework
Baseline figure Crops and grass078x img13.pngBaseline figureCrops and grassRelative change in decadal mean production according to the GGC models, with and without CO2 fertilization effectThe effect of climate change on crop yields strongly depends on the effect of CO2 fertilisation, also represented in LPJmL. Lines show means across several climate scenarios; adopted from Rosenzweig et al. (2014).
Flowchart Crops and grass077s img13.pngFlowchartCrops and grassCrop and grass module of LPJmL, in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Crops and grass. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon CGIcon CG.pngIconCrops and grassLink to framework components overviewState component: Crops and grass
Policy intervention figure Crops and grass079x2 img13.pngPolicy intervention figureCrops and grassClimate change impacts on crop yields from 1981 - 2010 to 2070 - 2099By the end of the century climate change impacts on crop yields under the baseline could be reduced by stringent climate policy.
USS-OverviewRio-2050-baseline.PNGOther type of figureDownloadUSS overviewUSS overview
Baseline figure Drivers142g img13.pngBaseline figureDriversPopulation under the OECD baseline and SSP scenariosThe total global population is projected to peak and then decline in the coming century, except under the high-end assumptions (SSP3). By 2100, the population may range between the current and twice as many as in 2000 in the SSPs. The OECD Outlook assumes an intermediate population growth trajectory, close to the medium population SSP scenarios.
Flowchart Drivers020s img13.pngFlowchartDriversScenario development and model drivers for IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Drivers. Model drives are inferred from scenario storylines taking into account external data sources, such as time series, cross-sector data, and literature sources.
Icon DIcon D.pngIconDriversLink to framework components overviewDriver component: Driver
Policy intervention figure Drivers143x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureDriversGDP under OECD baseline and the SSP scenariosProjected total world GDP in the OECD environmental outlook (OECD, 2012) and in the SSP scenarios according to OECD (left), per world region in SSP2 according to OECD (middle) and according to different sources for SSP3 (right). GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is shown in purchasing power parity (ppp), SSP data from the SSP database (IIASA, 2013).
Baseline figure Ecosystem services115k img13.pngBaseline figureEcosystem servicesNumder of the seven ecosystem services sufficiently suppled, 2000Assessing how many of the 7 ecosystem services addressed in IMAGE (food, water, Carbon sequestration, erosion protection, pollination, pest control, flood protection, tourism) can be sufficiently supplied allows to identify hotspots of losses in ecosystem services.
Flowchart Ecosystem services114s img13.pngFlowchartEcosystem servicesEcosystem Services model in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Ecosystem services. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon EGSIcon EGS.pngIconEcosystem servicesLink to framework components overviewImpact component: Ecosystem services
Policy intervention figure Ecosystem services116g img13.pngPolicy intervention figureEcosystem servicesAssessment of sufficient supply of ecosystem services under the baseline and sustainability scenariosWhile the supply of ecosystem services is decreasing under a baseline scenario, much of this decline could be avoided under a sustainability scenario (all based on PBL, 2012).
Baseline figure Emissions171x img13.pngBaseline figureEmissionsGloval greenhouse gas emissions and temperature changes under a baseline scenarioFuture greenhouse gas emissions are mostly driven by an increase in energy use, while the relative contribution of land-use related emissions is projected to decrease.
Flowchart Emissions148s img13.pngFlowchartEmissionsEmission module of IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Emissions. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page. Anthropogenic sources, for natural sources see Table 5.2.2. More detail on inputs and outputs, and how they link to other IMAGE components is presented at the end of this section (Emission table).
Icon EIcon E.pngIconEmissionsLink to framework components overviewPressure component: Emissions
Formula1 EmissionsFormula1 E.PNGOther type of figureEmissionsFormula 1: Emission factorFormula 1.
Policy intervention figure Emissions067x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureEmissionsGlobal emission of NOx and SO2 per sector under baseline and policy scenariosClimate policy has important co-benefits for air pollution.
Baseline figure Energy conversion029g img13.pngBaseline figureEnergy conversionElectricity production, per energy carrier under a baseline scenarioIncrease in primary energy demand for electricity production is dominated by coal, despite a rapid growth of renewable energy.
Flowchart Energy conversion028s img13.pngFlowchartEnergy conversionTIMER model, electricity moduleFlowchart Energy conversion. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon ECIcon EC.pngIconEnergy conversionLink to framework components overviewPressure component: Energy conversion
Policy intervention figure Energy conversion032x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureEnergy conversionGlobal capacity of the power sectorThe large share of conventional coal power in the baseline is replaced by fossil power with CCS and renewable capacity in the sustainability scenarios.
Baseline figure Energy demand023x img13.pngBaseline figureEnergy demandGlobal final energy demand under a baseline scenarioBetween 2010 and 2050 energy demand for transport and industry, and for natural gas and electricity contribute most to the overall increase.
Flowchart Energy demand022s img13.pngFlowchartEnergy demandTIMER model, energy demand moduleSome sectors are represented in a generic way as shown here, the sectors transport, residential and heavy industry are modelled in specific modules.
Icon EDIcon ED.pngIconEnergy demandLink to framework components overviewPressure component: Energy demand
Formula1 Energy demandFormula1 ED.PNGOther type of figureEnergy demandFormula 1: Final energy demandFormula 1.
Formula2 Energy demandFormula2 ED.PNGOther type of figureEnergy demandFormula 2: Indicated market shareFormula 2.
Policy intervention figure Energy demand024x img13.PNGPolicy intervention figureEnergy demandGlobal primary energy use under baseline and policy scenariosThe ‘envisaged policies’ scenario includes currently planned policies, the ‘global resource efficiency’ scenario assumes ambitious energy efficiency policies, and the ‘global resource efficiency and climate policy’ scenario additionally assumes policies to meet the 2 °C target. Total primary energy use could be significantly reduced by policies on energy efficiency, whereas additional climate policy would mostly affect the type of resources used. (Van den Berg et al., 2011b)
Baseline figure Energy supply036x img13.pngBaseline figureEnergy supplyEnergy production per region under a baseline scenarioOver time the share of most important energy producers for different forms of energy changes. This has implications for energy security.
Flowchart Energy supply034s img13.pngFlowchartEnergy supplyTIMER model, energy supply moduleFlowchart Energy supply. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon ESIcon ES.pngIconEnergy supplyLink to framework components overviewPressure component: Energy supply
Policy intervention figure Energy supply043x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureEnergy supplyGlobal primary energy supply
Flowchart Energy supply and demand021s img13.pngFlowchartEnergy supply and demandTIMER, the energy demand and supply model in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Energy supply and demand. Overview of the IMAGE/TIMER model
Icon ESDIcon ESD.pngIconEnergy supply and demandLink to framework components overviewMain pressure component: Energy supply and demand
Figure2 IMAGE framework summary009x img13.pngOther type of figureEnergy supply and demandGlobal primary energy supply in baseline and sustainability scenariosTrends in world energy use, with and without climate policy.
Baseline figure Flood risks107x img13.pngBaseline figureFlood risksFlood-related damage in Bangladesh, 30-year event, based on the historic climate (1961-1990)Inundation depth of 30-year flood scaled down to Bangladesh (left); The estimated annual damage due to floods (not only due to a 30-year event) is more concentrated when applying the land-use method compared to the population method.
Flowchart Flood risks105x img13.pngFlowchartFlood risksGLOFRIS, the flood risk model in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Flood risks. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon FRIcon FR.pngIconFlood riskslink to framework components overviewImpact component: Flood risks
Policy intervention figure Flood risks155x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureFlood risksFlood related damage in BangladeshFuture expected annual damage due to flooding depends on future climate change, but much even more on future GDP and population distribution.
Baseline figure Forest management054x img13.pngBaseline figureForest managementForest and forestryAreas of managed forest are projected to increase in the coming decades; improved forest management, especially forest plantations, could limit the area required for wood production.
Flowchart Forest management053s img13.pngFlowchartForest managementForest management module in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Forest management. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page. The option of forest plantations in IMAGE and LPJmL is still under development, and expected to be available soon.
Icon FMIcon FM.pngIconForest managementLink to framework components overviewPressure component: Forest management
Policy intervention figure Forest management056x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureForest managementPrevented global MSA (Mean Species Abundance) loss compared to the baseline scenario, 2000 - 2050Improved forest management can contribute to reducing biodiversity loss (measured in MSA, see Component Terrestrial biodiversity ).
IMAGE framework schematic004s img13.pngFlowchartFramework overviewAn overview of the IMAGE frameworkAn overview of the IMAGE framework and its components
Baseline figure Human development118x img13.pngBaseline figureHuman developmentChild mortality under a baseline scenario, per cause, per regionUnder a baseline scenario, the global under-five mortality rates will only reach the level of the Millenium Development goals by 2050.
Flowchart Human development117s img13.pngFlowchartHuman developmentGISMO model to assess human development in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Human development. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon HDIcon HD.pngIconHuman developmentlink to framework components overviewImpact component: Human development
Policy intervention figure Human development120g img13.pngPolicy intervention figureHuman developmentGlobal under-five mortality rate under baseline and sustainability scenariosCompared to the baseline, the sustainability scenarios ‘Global Technology’ and ‘Challenge +’ (PBL, 2012) will reduce child mortality, but the MDG target set for 2015 would still only be met after 2030.
Icon IFIcon IF.pngIconIMAGE framework summary
IMAGE framework
Baseline figure Water II084k img13.pngBaseline figureIMAGE framework summary/Earth systemRegions vulnerable to crop production losses due to irrigation water shortageRegions vulnerable to crop production losses due to shortages in irrigation water (Biemans, 2012).
Icon IIcon I.pngIconImpactslink to framework components overviewMain impact component: Impact
Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (A)133s img13.pngFlowchartLand and biodiversity policiesPolicy interventions in agricultural demandFlowchart Land and biodiversity policies (A). Policy interventions in the agricultural demand system.
Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (B)134s img13.pngFlowchartLand and biodiversity policiesPolicy interventions in the crop and livestock production systemsFlowchart Land and biodiversity policies (B). Policy interventions in crop and livestock production systems.
Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (C)135s img13.pngFlowchartLand and biodiversity policiesPolicy interventions in the forestry systemFlowchart Land and biodiversity policies (C). Policy interventions targeting the forestry sector.
Flowchart Land and biodiversity policies (D)136s img13.pngFlowchartLand and biodiversity policiesPolicy interventions in land-use regulationFlowchart Land and biodiversity policies (D). Policy interventions that regulate land use and land supply.
Icon LBPIcon LBP.pngIconLand and biodiversity policieslink to framework components overviewResponse component: Land and biodiversity policies
Policy intervention figure Land and biodiversity policies137x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureLand and biodiversity policiesChange in global biodiversity per option, compared to baseline scenarioResults of several interventions in declining biodiversity loss (PBL, 2010)
Policy intervention figure Land and biodiversity policies II140x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureLand and biodiversity policiesGlobal biodiversity under baseline and sustainability scenarios to prevent biodiversity lossBiodiversity is projected to decline further in the baseline scenario (left). Various measures in the demand system, the production system and in land-use regulation contribute to reducing biodiversity loss in the sustainability scenarios (right).
Icon LCUIcon LCU.pngIconLand cover and land uselink to framework components overviewState component: Land cover and land use
Baseline figure Land degradation163g img13.pngBaseline figureLand degradationWater erosion sensitivity of global land areas under baseline and sustainability scenariosUnder baseline conditions, the risk of high and very high water-induced erosion increases strongly up until 2050. Under the sustainability scenario (PBL, 2012), most of the increase under the baseline scenario is avoided by the combined effect of less land conversion and less climatic change.
Flowchart Land degradation110x img13.pngFlowchartLand degradationTwo approaches to assess land degradation in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Land degradation. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon LDIcon LD.pngIconLand degradationlink to framework components overviewImpact component: Land degradation
Formula1 Land degradationFormula1 LD.PNGOther type of figureLand degradationLand degradation formula 1
Formula2 Land degradationFormula2 LD.PNGOther type of figureLand degradationLand degradation formula 2
Formula3 Land degradationFormula3 LD.PNGOther type of figureLand degradationLand degradation formula 3
Formula4 Land degradationFormula4 LD.PNGOther type of figureLand degradationLand degradation formula 3
Policy intervention figure Land degradation111x img13.pngPolicy intervention figureLand degradationChangein main soil properties and maize yields, from undisturbed state to conditions in 2005As a result of soil degradation and changes in soil properties, yields are up to 30 % lower than they would have been under pristine conditions, in some parts of the world.
Baseline figure Land-use allocationCapture.PNGBaseline figureLand-use allocationDistribution of land systemsNatural land conversion in selected SSP scenarios for the 2020-2100 period (van Vuuren et al., 2021)
Flowchart Land-use allocation058x img13.pngFlowchartLand-use allocationLand-use allocation model in IMAGE 3.0Flowchart Land-use allocation. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
Icon ASIcon AS.pngIconLand-use allocationlink to framework components overviewPressure component: Land-use allocation
Policy intervention figure Land-use allocationCapture2.PNGPolicy intervention figureLand-use allocationCarbon emissions and land use under restricted land supply, compared to the baseline scenario, 2020Impact of land-use change, protection and restoration policies on ecosystem functions (van Esch et al., 2021)
... further results