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{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
|Reference=Van Vliet et al., 2013; Hoogwijk et al., 2007; Hendriks et al., 2004b; Van Ruijven et al., 2007;
|Reference=Hendriks et al., 2004b;Van Ruijven et al., 2007;WEC, 2010;MIT, 2003;IRENA, 2016;De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017;Pietzcker et al., 2017;Luderer et al., 2017;IEA, 2019;Schoots et al., 2008;IEA, 2021;S&P, 2017;DEA, 2018;IRENA, 2022;IRENA, 2020
|Description=<h2>Data</h2>
}}
<div class="page_standard">
==Data, uncertainty and limitations==
===Data===
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:


==== Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module ====
<table class="pbltable">
<table class="pbltable">
<caption>Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module</caption>
 
<tr>
<tr>
<th>Input
<th>Input
</th>
</th>
<th>Data source
<th>Data source
</th>
</th></tr>
</tr>
<tr><td>Electricity production and primary inputs
<tr><td>Electricity production and primary inputs
</td>
</td>
<td>{{abbrTemplate|IEA}} Statistics and Data ([[IEA, 2012]])
<td> [[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]  
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
</tr><td>Capacity of different plant types per region
<tr><td>Capacity of different plant types per region
</td>
</td>
<td>[[Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data|Energy Statistics and Data]] ([[Enerdata, 2010b]]; [[IEA, 2012a]])
<td>Energy Statistics and Data ([[Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data]]; [[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]); IRENA ([[IRENA, 2022|2022]]); S&P ([[S&P, 2017|2017]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants
<tr><td>Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants
</td>
</td>
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004a|2004a]])
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004a|2004a]]), various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>{{abbrTemplate|CCS}} plants and storage
<tr><td>{{abbrTemplate|CCS}} plants and storage
</td>
</td>
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004b|2004b]])
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004b|2004b]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Prices
<tr><td>Prices
</td>  
</td>  
<td>IEA Statistics and Data ([[IEA, 2012a]])
<td>[[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]  
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hydropower potential
<tr><td>Hydropower potential
</td>
</td>
<td>[[WEC-hydro|World Energy Council]] ([[WEC, 2010]])
<td>Gernaat et al. ([[Gernaat et al., 2017|2017]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Solar and wind costs
<tr><td>Solar and wind costs
</td>  
</td>  
<td>Hoogwijk et al., ([[Hoogwijk et al., 2007|2007]])
<td>Various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]), residential rooftop PV ([[Gernaat et al., 2020]]), offshore wind ([[Gernaat et al., 2014]]; [[DEA, 2018]]), concentrated solar power ([[Köberle et al., 2015|Koberle et al., 2015]]), onshore wind and central solar PV ([[Hoogwijk, 2004]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nuclear power - technology and resources
<tr><td>Nuclear power - technology and resources
</td>
</td>
<td>[[WEC-Uranium]] ([[WEC, 2010]]); MIT ([[MIT, 2003|2003]])
<td>[[WEC-Uranium]] ([[WEC, 2010]]; [[MIT, 2003]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hydrogen technologies  
<tr><td>Hydrogen technologies  
  </td>  
  </td>  
<td>Van Ruijven et al., ([[Van Ruijven et al., 2007|2007]])
<td>[[Van Ruijven et al., 2007]]; [[Schoots et al., 2008]]; IEA ([[IEA, 2019|2019]]); IRENA ([[IRENA, 2020|2020]])
</td>
</td>
</tr>
</tr>
</table>
</table>


==Uncertainties==
===Uncertainties===
Important uncertainties in the calculation of future energy conversion relate to development rates of the different conversion technologies and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration.  
The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy.
TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]; [[Pietzcker et al., 2017]]; [[Luderer et al., 2017]]). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe electricity system developments.  


For the United States and western Europe, the behaviour of the TIMER electric power model  has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy ([[Hoogwijk et al., 2007]]). Model experiments show that the model is able to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe system integration costs. More recent studies, however, seem to suggest that some of the limitations in renewable energy penetration can be overcome against reasonable costs, implying the current description is rather conservative. Integration costs for renewable energy, however, are very uncertain, given the fact that, except for in a few countries, large shares of market penetration still would need to be achieved. In experiments run by ([[Van Vliet et al., 2013]]), the power system was exposed to all kinds of limitations of technology availability. These experiments clearly showed that, in order to achieve low stabilisation targets, a large portfolio of mitigation options should be available.
===Limitations===
The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. A more detailed discussion on the model limitations can be found in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]).


==Limitations==
Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.
The [[TIMER model]] tries to describe long-term trends in the energy system. This implies that the focus is on rather aggregated factors that may determine future energy consumption and supply. In energy conversion, however, also many short-term dynamics can be of critical importance for the system such as the reliability of the system and its ability to respond to short-term demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in TIMER in terms of meta-formulations, implying that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy remain unaddressed.
</div>
 
Another limitation includes the current formulation of conversion of primary fossil fuels into secondary fuels. At the moment, a module that describes these processes explicitly has not been included in TIMER.
}}

Latest revision as of 12:28, 18 November 2022

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Aggregated component:Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Key publications
References
TIMER model, electricity module
Flowchart Energy conversion. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

Data, uncertainty and limitations

Data

The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:

Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module

Input Data source
Electricity production and primary inputs IEA Statistics and Data
Capacity of different plant types per region Energy Statistics and Data (Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data; IEA Statistics and Data); IRENA (2022); S&P (2017)
Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants Hendriks et al. (2004a), various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017); IEA (2021)
CCS plants and storage Hendriks et al. (2004b); IEA (2021)
Prices IEA Statistics and Data
Hydropower potential Gernaat et al. (2017)
Solar and wind costs Various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017), residential rooftop PV (Gernaat et al., 2020), offshore wind (Gernaat et al., 2014; DEA, 2018), concentrated solar power (Koberle et al., 2015), onshore wind and central solar PV (Hoogwijk, 2004); IEA (2021)
Nuclear power - technology and resources WEC-Uranium (WEC, 2010; MIT, 2003); IEA (2021)
Hydrogen technologies Van Ruijven et al., 2007; Schoots et al., 2008; IEA (2019); IRENA (2020)

Uncertainties

The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy. TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017; Pietzcker et al., 2017; Luderer et al., 2017). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe electricity system developments.

Limitations

The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. A more detailed discussion on the model limitations can be found in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017).

Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.

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