Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions
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{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate | {{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate | ||
|Reference=Van | |Reference=Hendriks et al., 2004b;Van Ruijven et al., 2007;WEC, 2010;MIT, 2003;IRENA, 2016;De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017;Pietzcker et al., 2017;Luderer et al., 2017;IEA, 2019;Schoots et al., 2008;IEA, 2021;S&P, 2017;DEA, 2018;IRENA, 2022;IRENA, 2020 | ||
}} | |||
<div class="page_standard"> | |||
==Data, uncertainty and limitations== | |||
===Data=== | ===Data=== | ||
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are: | The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are: | ||
==== Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module ==== | |||
<table class="pbltable"> | <table class="pbltable"> | ||
<tr> | <tr> | ||
<th>Input | <th>Input | ||
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<tr><td>Capacity of different plant types per region | <tr><td>Capacity of different plant types per region | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
<td>Energy Statistics and Data ([[Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data]]; [[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]) | <td>Energy Statistics and Data ([[Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data]]; [[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]); IRENA ([[IRENA, 2022|2022]]); S&P ([[S&P, 2017|2017]]) | ||
</td></tr> | </td></tr> | ||
<tr><td>Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants | <tr><td>Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004a|2004a]]) | <td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004a|2004a]]), various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]]) | ||
</td></tr> | </td></tr> | ||
<tr><td>{{abbrTemplate|CCS}} plants and storage | <tr><td>{{abbrTemplate|CCS}} plants and storage | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004b|2004b]]) | <td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004b|2004b]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]]) | ||
</td></tr> | </td></tr> | ||
<tr><td>Prices | <tr><td>Prices | ||
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<tr><td>Hydropower potential | <tr><td>Hydropower potential | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
<td> | <td>Gernaat et al. ([[Gernaat et al., 2017|2017]]) | ||
</td></tr> | </td></tr> | ||
<tr><td>Solar and wind costs | <tr><td>Solar and wind costs | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
<td>[[ | <td>Various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]), residential rooftop PV ([[Gernaat et al., 2020]]), offshore wind ([[Gernaat et al., 2014]]; [[DEA, 2018]]), concentrated solar power ([[Köberle et al., 2015|Koberle et al., 2015]]), onshore wind and central solar PV ([[Hoogwijk, 2004]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]]) | ||
</td></tr> | </td></tr> | ||
<tr><td>Nuclear power - technology and resources | <tr><td>Nuclear power - technology and resources | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
<td>[[WEC-Uranium]] ([[WEC, 2010]]; [[MIT, 2003]]) | <td>[[WEC-Uranium]] ([[WEC, 2010]]; [[MIT, 2003]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]]) | ||
</td></tr> | </td></tr> | ||
<tr><td>Hydrogen technologies | <tr><td>Hydrogen technologies | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
<td>[[Van Ruijven et al., 2007]] | <td>[[Van Ruijven et al., 2007]]; [[Schoots et al., 2008]]; IEA ([[IEA, 2019|2019]]); IRENA ([[IRENA, 2020|2020]]) | ||
</td> | </td> | ||
</tr> | </tr> | ||
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===Uncertainties=== | ===Uncertainties=== | ||
The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy. | The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy. | ||
TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy | TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]; [[Pietzcker et al., 2017]]; [[Luderer et al., 2017]]). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe electricity system developments. | ||
===Limitations=== | ===Limitations=== | ||
The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. | The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. A more detailed discussion on the model limitations can be found in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]). | ||
Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes. | Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes. | ||
</div> |
Latest revision as of 12:28, 18 November 2022
Parts of Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations
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Projects/Applications |
Models/Databases |
Key publications |
References |
Data, uncertainty and limitations
Data
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:
Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module
Input | Data source |
---|---|
Electricity production and primary inputs | IEA Statistics and Data |
Capacity of different plant types per region | Energy Statistics and Data (Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data; IEA Statistics and Data); IRENA (2022); S&P (2017) |
Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants | Hendriks et al. (2004a), various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017); IEA (2021) |
CCS plants and storage | Hendriks et al. (2004b); IEA (2021) |
Prices | IEA Statistics and Data |
Hydropower potential | Gernaat et al. (2017) |
Solar and wind costs | Various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017), residential rooftop PV (Gernaat et al., 2020), offshore wind (Gernaat et al., 2014; DEA, 2018), concentrated solar power (Koberle et al., 2015), onshore wind and central solar PV (Hoogwijk, 2004); IEA (2021) |
Nuclear power - technology and resources | WEC-Uranium (WEC, 2010; MIT, 2003); IEA (2021) |
Hydrogen technologies | Van Ruijven et al., 2007; Schoots et al., 2008; IEA (2019); IRENA (2020) |
Uncertainties
The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy. TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017; Pietzcker et al., 2017; Luderer et al., 2017). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe electricity system developments.
Limitations
The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. A more detailed discussion on the model limitations can be found in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017).
Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.