Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
|Reference=Van Vliet et al., 2013; Hoogwijk et al., 2007; Hendriks et al., 2004b; Van Ruijven et al., 2007; WEC, 2010; MIT, 2003;
|Reference=Hendriks et al., 2004b;Van Ruijven et al., 2007;WEC, 2010;MIT, 2003;IRENA, 2016;De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017;Pietzcker et al., 2017;Luderer et al., 2017;IEA, 2019;Schoots et al., 2008;IEA, 2021;S&P, 2017;DEA, 2018;IRENA, 2022;IRENA, 2020
|Description=<h2>Data, uncertainties and limitations</h2>
}}
<div class="page_standard">
==Data, uncertainty and limitations==
===Data===
===Data===
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:


==== Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module ====
<table class="pbltable">
<table class="pbltable">
<div class="thumbcaption dark">Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module</div>
 
<tr>
<tr>
<th>Input
<th>Input
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<tr><td>Capacity of different plant types per region
<tr><td>Capacity of different plant types per region
</td>
</td>
<td>Energy Statistics and Data ([[Enerdata Global Energy & CO<sub>2</sub> Data]]; [[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]])
<td>Energy Statistics and Data ([[Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data]]; [[IEA database|IEA Statistics and Data]]); IRENA ([[IRENA, 2022|2022]]); S&P ([[S&P, 2017|2017]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants
<tr><td>Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants
</td>
</td>
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004a|2004a]])
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004a|2004a]]), various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>{{abbrTemplate|CCS}} plants and storage
<tr><td>{{abbrTemplate|CCS}} plants and storage
</td>
</td>
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004b|2004b]])
<td>Hendriks et al. ([[Hendriks et al., 2004b|2004b]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Prices
<tr><td>Prices
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<tr><td>Hydropower potential
<tr><td>Hydropower potential
</td>
</td>
<td>World Energy Council ([[WEC, 2010]])
<td>Gernaat et al. ([[Gernaat et al., 2017|2017]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Solar and wind costs
<tr><td>Solar and wind costs
</td>  
</td>  
<td>[[Hoogwijk et al., 2007]]
<td>Various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]), residential rooftop PV ([[Gernaat et al., 2020]]), offshore wind ([[Gernaat et al., 2014]]; [[DEA, 2018]]), concentrated solar power ([[Köberle et al., 2015|Koberle et al., 2015]]), onshore wind and central solar PV ([[Hoogwijk, 2004]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Nuclear power - technology and resources
<tr><td>Nuclear power - technology and resources
</td>
</td>
<td>[[WEC-Uranium]] ([[WEC, 2010]]; [[MIT, 2003]])
<td>[[WEC-Uranium]] ([[WEC, 2010]]; [[MIT, 2003]]); IEA ([[IEA, 2021|2021]])
</td></tr>
</td></tr>
<tr><td>Hydrogen technologies  
<tr><td>Hydrogen technologies  
  </td>  
  </td>  
<td>[[Van Ruijven et al., 2007]]
<td>[[Van Ruijven et al., 2007]]; [[Schoots et al., 2008]]; IEA ([[IEA, 2019|2019]]); IRENA ([[IRENA, 2020|2020]])
</td>
</td>
</tr>
</tr>
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===Uncertainties===
===Uncertainties===
The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy.  
The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy.  
TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy in the United States and western Europe ([[Hoogwijk et al., 2007]]). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe system integration costs. More recent studies seem to suggest that some of the limitations in renewable energy penetration can be overcome at reasonable costs, implying the current description is rather conservative. Integration costs for renewable energy are very uncertain because large shares of market penetration still need to be achieved, except in a few countries. In experiments run by The power system was exposed to all types of technology limitations in experiments run by Van Vliet et al. ([[Van Vliet et al., 2013|2013]]). These experiments showed that to achieve low stabilisation targets, a large portfolio of mitigation options should be available.  
TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]; [[Pietzcker et al., 2017]]; [[Luderer et al., 2017]]). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe electricity system developments.  


===Limitations===
===Limitations===
The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed.
The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. A more detailed discussion on the model limitations can be found in De Boer and Van Vuuren ([[De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017]]).


Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.
Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.
}}
</div>

Latest revision as of 12:28, 18 November 2022

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Aggregated component:Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Key publications
References
TIMER model, electricity module
Flowchart Energy conversion. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.

Data, uncertainty and limitations

Data

The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:

Table: Main data sources for the TIMER energy conversion module

Input Data source
Electricity production and primary inputs IEA Statistics and Data
Capacity of different plant types per region Energy Statistics and Data (Enerdata Global Energy & CO2 Data; IEA Statistics and Data); IRENA (2022); S&P (2017)
Performance of fossil fuel and bio-energy fired plants Hendriks et al. (2004a), various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017); IEA (2021)
CCS plants and storage Hendriks et al. (2004b); IEA (2021)
Prices IEA Statistics and Data
Hydropower potential Gernaat et al. (2017)
Solar and wind costs Various sources described in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017), residential rooftop PV (Gernaat et al., 2020), offshore wind (Gernaat et al., 2014; DEA, 2018), concentrated solar power (Koberle et al., 2015), onshore wind and central solar PV (Hoogwijk, 2004); IEA (2021)
Nuclear power - technology and resources WEC-Uranium (WEC, 2010; MIT, 2003); IEA (2021)
Hydrogen technologies Van Ruijven et al., 2007; Schoots et al., 2008; IEA (2019); IRENA (2020)

Uncertainties

The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy. TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017; Pietzcker et al., 2017; Luderer et al., 2017). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe electricity system developments.

Limitations

The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed. A more detailed discussion on the model limitations can be found in De Boer and Van Vuuren (De Boer and Van Vuuren, 2017).

Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.

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