Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations: Difference between revisions

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{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
{{ComponentDataUncertaintyAndLimitationsTemplate
|Reference=Van Vliet et al., 2013; Hoogwijk et al., 2007;  Hendriks et al., 2004b; Van Ruijven et al., 2007;
|Reference=Van Vliet et al., 2013; Hoogwijk et al., 2007;  Hendriks et al., 2004b; Van Ruijven et al., 2007; WEC, 2010; MIT, 2003;  
|Description=<h2>Data</h2>
|Description=<h2>Data, uncertainties and limitations</h2>
===Data===
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:
The data for the model come from a variety of sources, the main of which are:


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</table>
</table>


==Uncertainties==
===Uncertainties===
Important uncertainties in the calculation of future energy conversion relate to development rates of the different conversion technologies and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration.  
The two main uncertainties are calculation of future energy conversion relating to development rates of the conversion technologies, and the consequences for the electricity system of a high level of market penetration of renewable energy.
TIMER electric power generation submodule has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy in the United States and western Europe ([[Hoogwijk et al., 2007]]). The model was shown to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe system integration costs. More recent studies seem to suggest that some of the limitations in renewable energy penetration can be overcome at reasonable costs, implying the current description is rather conservative. Integration costs for renewable energy are very uncertain because large shares of market penetration still need to be achieved, except in a few countries. In experiments run by The power system was exposed to all types of technology limitations in experiments run by Van Vliet et al. ([[Van Vliet et al., 2013|2013]]). These experiments showed that to achieve low stabilisation targets, a large portfolio of mitigation options should be available.  


For the United States and western Europe, the behaviour of the TIMER electric power model  has been tested for different levels of market penetration of renewable energy ([[Hoogwijk et al., 2007]]). Model experiments show that the model is able to reproduce the behaviour of more detailed models that describe system integration costs. More recent studies, however, seem to suggest that some of the limitations in renewable energy penetration can be overcome against reasonable costs, implying the current description is rather conservative. Integration costs for renewable energy, however, are very uncertain, given the fact that, except for in a few countries, large shares of market penetration still would need to be achieved. In experiments run by ([[Van Vliet et al., 2013]]), the power system was exposed to all kinds of limitations of technology availability. These experiments clearly showed that, in order to achieve low stabilisation targets, a large portfolio of mitigation options should be available.
===Limitations===
The model describes long-term trends in the energy system, which implies that the focus is on aggregated factors that may determine future energy demand and supply. However in energy conversion, many short-term dynamics can be critical for the system, such as system reliability and ability to respond to demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in an aggregated global model in terms of meta-formulations, which implies that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy are still not addressed.


==Limitations==
Another limitation is the formulation of primary fossil-fuel conversions in secondary fuels. TIMER currently does not include a module that explicitly describes these processes.
The [[TIMER model]] tries to describe long-term trends in the energy system. This implies that the focus is on rather aggregated factors that may determine future energy consumption and supply. In energy conversion, however, also many short-term dynamics can be of critical importance for the system such as the reliability of the system and its ability to respond to short-term demand fluctuations. These processes can only be represented in TIMER in terms of meta-formulations, implying that some of the integration issues regarding renewable energy remain unaddressed.


Another limitation includes the current formulation of conversion of primary fossil fuels into secondary fuels. At the moment, a module that describes these processes explicitly has not been included in TIMER.
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Revision as of 13:01, 22 May 2014

Link to framework components overview

Parts of Energy conversion/Data uncertainties limitations

  1. Introduction page
  2. Model description
  3. Policy issues
  4. Data, uncertainty and limitations
  5. Overview of references
Component is implemented in:
Aggregated component:Components:
Related IMAGE components
Projects/Applications
Models/Databases
Key publications
References
TIMER model, electricity module
Flowchart Energy conversion. See also the Input/Output Table on the introduction page.
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